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PMI Group Inc. Message Board

  • paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Feb 24, 2010 2:17 PM Flag

    the difference between me and a pumper

    is i will not come on here and berate the longs for being "stupid" and "getting their ass handed to them" and pop off like a frat boy about how my short position is so much in the money today, in fact i feel bad for many of the longs on this board who buy this stock without understanding the underlying fundamentals of this industry, a day like yesterdya should be a lesson for all of you, these names will rocket on days like yesterday in a flurry of shortcovering, but don't mistake that for a rally based on improved fundamentals, because the fundamentals are deteriorating for these names, not improving, desptie what managements tell you, before you jump into these names you need to understand the business, or just do what people like me do, peopel who understand the business, but don't worry, all is not lost, there is still plenty of money to be made shorting the likes of rdn and mtg, mtg is a prime exmapoe, according to my modeling, which has been pretty accurate so far through this crisis, mtg will barely be able to pay off their claims in an expected scenario, and might even be a bit short, they will not be able to pay off their debt, but yet the equity trades at a market cap of nearly 1b, shorting mtg at these levels is easy, easy money, about as easy as it will ever get, pmi is probably not worth buying or selling at these levels, and i may even just cover today with my quick and easy gain, but at a 200m market cap it is nothing but a lottery ticket, whereas you odds of making money shorting mtg is nearly 100% guarantteed, i will be more than happy to share my assumptions and estimaes on these boards, as usual, for any of those who are interested in learning more about these names, so don't be hater and learn when you have the chance, i am more than happy to answer and and all questions about these names, glta.

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    • I am for real when I tell you this. I have never shorted before and would like to learn and you seem to be on your game when it comes to that. I am on this board every night looking and reading taking it all in. I sold pmi yesterday @ 3.10 and came close to buying at the end of the day, and thank god I didn't. Anyway about shorting can you teach me the basics, I really don't know how it all works. Thank you for your time on this board. P.Slate

      • 2 Replies to slatepatrick
      • mechanically shorting is very easy, you just get a broker, including online brokers, and enter an order to sell shares short, the key is getting a good broker who can find shares, and won't pull your shares from you, that is, force you to buy them back when you don't want them, personally i use several brokers in order to locate shares, sometimes it is hard, espeically on a heavily shorted low priced stock like this, the hardest thing about shorting is changing your mindset, just like as a long you get happy when a stock you like drops in price so you can buy it cheaper, when you are looking from the short side you are happy when a stock you are watching goes up in price, like with pmi yesterday, i was ecstatic when it went over $3, and reall yhappy when i was able to short at 3.10, and to be honest i already covered, when i get 10% profits in a day i take them, i am a bit of a pussy that way, i will admit, in any case that is the hardest thing, being happy when companies you know are failing skyrocket, because that is when the best opportunities are, but in that way it is no different than being long, you need to understand the company you are shorting ver, very well, because irrational exhuberance on the long side tends to last a lot longer than panic on the downside.

      • Dudes, I knew this think was going to drop today and no I did not take profits..Why I cannot say. Kudos for you getting out at 3.10 you sold at the top. I have seen this thing move so very fast(mostly in pre-market) that I am afraid i'll miss the big moves when they happen.