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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

  • keybotthequant keybotthequant Apr 9, 2011 1:38 PM Flag

    AA Chart

    Weekly chart in firm negative divergence right now so the projection is a spank down in price.

    The negative divergence forecasts that the earnings release on Monday night will be a sell the news event. Either earnings will not beat or the guidance will be reduced based on the chart.

    For the AA chart google keystone speculator or view at stockcharts public charts keystone speculator.

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    • If there's such sentiment that earnings and/or guidance will miss and send the stock lower, don't you think that it lowers the expectations a bit? Going into the announcement it's been hit hard Thursday and Friday. Doesn't that make it more likely that even with a decent earnings and guidance, the stock can rebound?

      • 1 Reply to dcstockpicks
      • My answer to your question, and it's all speculative of course, is that the 18.47 we saw was a great price and profits were taken...

        Might we see another monday morning pop, sure, why not...

        But with alum @ 1.20, i believe, can it continue to go higher from here..? Analysts are looking at future guidance, can it continue to go up for the next year..? Of course not, so sooner or later, dropping alum prices will hit margins, and if inflation continues, profits along with it...

        Again, all spec, but this stock has come a long way, and qe2's coming to an end, and countries are raising rates. The last year has been the perfect climate for equities to apprecaite. Who knows, it may continue, but Alcoa is very heavily overbought at these levels for now, imo...

        A good report could produce a nice pop, u just never know, but guranteed that shorts will be all over it...

        imo...

    • I traded solely on technicals for quite some time, but found that i was leaving something out in my overall assessment of choosing a trade to play...

      and that was intuition, market sentiment, and of late, Fed monetary policy..

      To trade solely on what a chart's telling you is nothing but folly...

      Frankly, i agree that it will be a sell the news event AND that guidance will be lackluster at best.. Alcoa's come a long way.

      But to say that your forecasts is based solely on a divergence from the trend is foolhardy...

      Take a look at the 1-yr spx chart, 2 major breaks in the lower trendline and look where we are, not to mention HUNDREDS of other stocks that have performed in the same manner...

      And no doubt, Friday's big dive had SOMETHING, at least a little, with the looming Gov't shutdown and the unknowns that accompany it..

      But trade on charts ALONE without factoring in any other mryiad of events and you'll be in the boneyard with the thousands of others who've lost everything they had doing just that...

      imo...

 
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