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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

  • yourdeadmeat69 yourdeadmeat69 Mar 28, 2012 4:19 PM Flag

    End of QTR Window Dressing Meets Consolidation

    RIO Tinto buying aluminum source overseas? Just what the industry needs, the competition thinks they can squeeze more profit by providing more overhead.

    Between that issue, which always sounds like power grabs until the mathematicians decide the acquiring community can't add, and the hullabaloo over ACH overreporting production, the CEO of Russia's aluminim producer quitting because they can't make any money over there--last man standing becomes AA.

    Will there be a rough quarter? No kidding. There may be a rough three quarters. But while the community scuffles around trying to get footing, AA is already vertically integrated and getting more and more efficient.

    This week the big guys dress the windows. They toss the good with the bad.

    I'm catching this window, it's stain glass and worth a fortune.

    $11.50-$13.00 by end of year.

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    • Getting knocked out of the S and P meant a lot of action on Wednesday, as stock transaction of record means you had to be out the door with documentation by COB 30 March.

      The volume today is still downward but retail follow thru and the general market expectation that this Depression of 2008-2018 is anywhere near on the mend is stifled by ho hum stats in the mortgage housing and unemployment numbers. Banks horde the Feds cash, investing it at no risk, while stifling any "stimulus" that might represent.

      Meantime, corporations pay nearly zilch taxes, and the rich one percent wouldn't care anyway, they'd just print more stock options to make up the difference. The middle class does most of the work, pays most of the taxes, and the poor are there to scare the crap out of the middle class.

      Aluminum stores are not brimming as full as copper, and I don't see the overstatement of ACH or the impending doom for Russia's aluminum capability, or the recent bid for Europe aluminum production by RIO TINTO as anything but bullish for last man standing--AA. ACH is full of beans, not aluminum, RIO TINTO will want a premium for it's cash flow and that adds cost to an already strapped European manufacturing capability--no help there--Russia is without a rudder or profitability in the business--so--there goes the world neighborhood.

      It isn't a scenario for ten baggers, and the numbers in April will look grim to the Sesame Street crowd who have zero patience, but for those who do, this is the perfect widows and orphans stock.

      I just keep selling covered calls against the shares and collecting time premium.

    • Looking for opportunities Today and Friday.

    • DOW & NAS had a good run from jan. AA missed out, oyur right on evaluations,
      could very well be a pump and dump if so whats keeping it up this should be sub 8s
      JAPAN DEAL rolled price increase
      BIG 50 back on line
      MORE DEMAND for alum in autos
      the list goes on.....

      ALUM is cheep, they mine it...smelt it... produce finish products
      could it be they are looking at the 50 sum % having a better than expected
      increase for finish product!
      market always looks ahead

      Is this why the price is staying up?

      • 1 Reply to johny745
      • The stock has nosedived from $17 to current levels which isn't even a dead cat bounce. All your arguments auger for "baked in" at these levels, what we are seeing is the in and out of S and P 500 funds taking hold of shares that were dealing mostly in S and P 100 levels.

        Nothing is perfect, but accumulate low, sell high, is a Buffet rule. This co is WAY undervalued.

    • Agree. With Aluminum, it isn't a matter of if, it is a matter of when. Sometimes it pays to be the market leader.

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