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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

  • yourdeadmeat69 yourdeadmeat69 May 6, 2012 9:29 AM Flag

    AA, Markets, Ad Hominem Argumentation

    AA market performs, and as markets and people worldwide look for single leader solutions to economic problems that have little to do with single point solutions, be wary of off topic drivel by posters, and the market commentators.

    This next week the elections suddenly catch the eyes of the news pandering to a mob so beleagured by economic fallout, they thirst for that "one leader" who can wave a magic wand over the universe and make it all better. The economy doesn't "know" who's elected versus not.

    Yet--the herd will move, and technical indicators prevail, over logic and common sense for those who cling, however fruitlessly, to a free market solution. Not because there is a philosophical difference between candidate X or Y here or abroad, those guys are only interested in pandering to the lowest common denominator--the voter.

    It's because unless you have your thumb on a Wall Street driver, namely investment, whether it be in mortgages for joesixpac in the real economy, or the value of the currency of exchange, none of the candidates world wide can make anything but psychological difference to a faith based investor clinging more to dreamology, than reality. Until the banks let go some of that money they've reinvested back into the government and into joe's hands, the slog will be five to six years in the making.

    AA is a market follower at this point, and is trading below the low just before the report out last quarter. You can't hold a balloon underwater forever.

    In the meantime, I invest conservatively, adding at positions just below current value -- in the early nines, and then selling in the money covered call options for six months or so. I make 50 cents on a covered call, I buy it back when it deteriorates that fifty cents, and pocket it lowering my basis.

    October 9's and January 8's for the summer look like a good way to collect about 8% in the next six months for new shares, I hope some of you took advice a while back and sold Oct and Jan 10's--I've reeled in a bunch and closed out those positions.

    My best possible scenario has us finishing about $10 the year, my worst has me at $8.99 with all covered call premium sitting in my pocket in cash waiting for opportunities.

    GLTA and keep watching the technicals in this environment. The shares are on sale, and may get a bit cheaper next week.

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    • "AA market performs"

      Your "ANALysis" falls apart for investors with a timeline of 6 months or more meathead, but poochie pumpers do tend to stick together since misery loves company...

      • 1 Reply to squamish7b
      • GOOD ON TOPIC POST. Actually I am talking to the folks who've been in this stock since about August of last year, nine months, or, have doubled down on the low end and are BE about $12 having gotten in under the guise of Cramer's psychobabble about as year or so ago.

        You must be the only one around still at $43 a share. Most of the other folks who hold this investment retail have only been in it for about 9 months the float has rolled over a couple three times. Many of those on the low end are sitting on a 12% profit. Many who bought at $16 double downed and $7 or $8. Many have sold covered call options or bought protective puts, especially those in cash accounts.

        I own this stock 20,000 shares deep, with an average BE of $9.62. If the stock closes in October anything close to $9, I make a whopping 54 cents, or 54/$8.54 net invested, a whopping 6.8% in six or so months, including those 3 penny dividends. That's a little less than 14% a year, which isn't Warren Buffet, but is a nice rate of return.

        I actually hope $9 works by end of summer--I will buy back the calls, and make about 30 cents, and sell another leap

        Why don't you poll the folks on the board and see what they average?

    • A little OFFFFFFFFFFFF topic, aren't we meaty?

      YPU, you ISSSSSSSS.


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