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iShares MSCI Japan Message Board

  • kg2931 kg2931 May 30, 2013 4:31 PM Flag

    What Do We Do Now that the Bubble's burst?

    What Do We Do Now? (FJSCX, DBJP and DXJ)

    I am a US retired Sr citizen investing my retirement funds and don't know anything about the Japanese financial system - other than what I'm reading in the newspaper. I liked what I was seeing with Abe's actions and the Central Bank, so last week, just before this crash, I bought into all three FJSCX, DBJP and DXJ. Immediately after - the 7% crash - go figure! The Japanese currency seems to have a mind of it's own, the market over heated & crashed and now I'm wondering just what I got myself into!

    I am thinking better ask folks that follow the Japanese market and understand this stuff. Can you or someone on this msg board give me an opinion on what the Japanese market is likely to do short term - 2 wks to a month tops AND PLEASE any opinions on whether I should get out of the three funds above appreciated very much.


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    • there are some articles on marketwatch, but personally I think it will correct and then continue climbing, the correction isn't deep enough yet for a really good bounce back up

    • Malcolm Belco said to go in two weeks ago at 14.00 or so, big article in newspaper, said they will be stimulated and continue up. Since then I am down 15 percent or so. If I had not bought it then, I would now. Meaning, I am not going to sell,
      The hedge fuinds have this under control until the bulls take back over

    • So you bought three securities that track the exact same thing? Never do that ever again - it's the complete opposite of diversifying.

      To be honest, I do not think you are going to recover your losses anytime soon. If I were you, I would buy more at these current levels with the intent of selling your entire position at around $11.5. Hopefully, the more you average in now at these low levels the less of a hit you will take when Japan does in fact see a bounce (which it will) and you sell.

      Japan was "hot" and sucked a lot of people in - you'll get some flippers that will drive it back up but there's a lot of "trapped longs" (like yourself) ...just get out before they do and you'll be fine.

      • 1 Reply to rmjjensen
      • Thx for advice rmjj,

        Well although in my IRA trading acct, this is a short - mid term play. Bought three similar funds trying to tracking the same market as the Fidelity fund FJSCX, which has done very well YTD. Only have $3000 in each. The FJSCX has a 90 day redemption fee but the other two etfs of course I can get out of anytime. So, far after the first week, now I'm down little over 10% already, yeah nice timing, ha!

        Don't have anymore dry powder at the moment to average further in. If any of the funds drop 20%, then I'll find some money and buy it down. Will play this for 3 months until the redemption period is up. Actually, the redemption fee would only cost me about $50 so not a big deal there.

        Just reading articles in the WSJ it would seem there's not enough info on the Japanese market telling me to definitely get out right now. If I had to guess, I would say investors sold & took some profits but will be back. Temporary correction. Now if Bernanke comes out again and this time says, 'Yep, we're going to raise rates starting next month, then look out below world-wide.


    • Consider hedging when it's inexpensive to do so. I wrote about how you could hedge EWJ before its crash last week, and then wrote a follow up showing how the hedge reacted to the drop. Google "there goes tokyo slope of hope" to find it.

    • Cover your short perhaps?

    • GET OUT, if you care about your savings. go buy real estate for a steady return. speculating in japan equities is no place for your retirement fund

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