There are some who think this weeks earnings are going to be very positive. I would advise to not be so optimistic. Obviously the main driver will be Brevagen numbers. They sold 368 in the previous quarter. They need to sell at least 500 for the market to just react neutral imo. If they sell between 500-1000 there could be some movement to the upside. If they sell over 1000 there could be significant upside to the stock cause of the traction they are making. One analyst was expecting them to sell 2500-3500 in FY 2013. I just don't see them selling that many tests last quarter as they had the same amount of doctors selling the tests. The problem is they are running out of cash and their licensing slowed to a crawl with all the reexaminations and slow settlement talks. Maybe they will surprise us all... but I doubt it.
Earnings were in line with what I was expecting. I guess the encouraging part of last quarter is they are making more money on the tests than before and 2 new licensing deals just announced. The question is do they go out and raise additional capital and dilute the shareholders, or wait on more licensing money and their 2.5 million line of credit to get them by. I know ole Mervyn won't want to get diluted and that's why he voted out the old board when they registered $25 million in stock. There will be big dilution selling stock at this level. They need to partner up with somebody to sell Brevagen if they can't get the financing from their licensing revenue. They seem to think they are going to windfall soon from their licensing cause they don't seem to be worried about the low cash position.
very balanced and well judged assesment.
one more detail: Brevagen providers increased from 89 in March to 107 when I checked brevagen "Find Doctor" web page.
Take past quaters Brevagen numbers from the March report and try to extrapopolate, the Analyst may be not far of the result.