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Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. Message Board

  • jj719903 jj719903 Apr 16, 2013 11:15 PM Flag

    Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter, writes today:

    "Concerning gold, let's note firstly something sent to us by our old friend John Brimelow, who had a most interesting piece in his commentary this morning regarding the violence of the recent price changes. He noted a piece written by Russell Rhoads, CFA of the CBOE Option Institute, who wrote the following:

    "'Friday was a 4.88 standard deviation move in the price of gold. For simplicity's sake let's call it a five standard deviation move. Statistically we get a five standard deviation move approximately once every 4,776 years. So we should not expect another move like this out of the price of gold until May 17, 6789. ... Currently the two-day price change in GLD is 16.65, which can be converted to just over eight standard deviations. I wanted to share what this comes to, but the table I use only goes up to seven standard deviations. Let's just say the sun is expected to burn out first.'"

    Gartman continues: "We shall confidently say that we will never, ever see a day such as we saw yesterday in the gold market in our lifetime again. It will not happen. The sun will indeed burn out before we see anything such as that again. Nor shall we ever want to see anything such as that again. We can reasonably deal with deviations from the norm of 2 or 3 or perhaps even 4, but 8+ standard deviations is beyond our ken or that of anyone else anywhere. Yesterday's price action will go down in history as an aberration of truly historic proportions.

    "We judge the violence of the market's movements by the numbers of requests for interviews made of us, for the correlation between high numbers of such requests is nearly 1:1 with peaks and valleys of various markets. A large number of requests made of us is four or five a day; a truly large number is eight. Yesterday we had 12, and we've agreed to give several more today that we could not fit into our schedule yesterday. This befits an 8+ standard deviation day."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Ah, yes, "an aberration of truly historic proportions" -- but while central banks are the biggest gold traders, that aberration was still not large enough to prompt Gartman to put a question to a central bank or two. Yes, in that respect as well the sun will burn out first.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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