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Vail Resorts Inc. Message Board

  • investornaplesfl investornaplesfl May 1, 2009 12:39 AM Flag

    regarding MTN...worth looking at

    This isn't a very active board, so I thought I'd post. Two links are included that reveal circumstances that could have an impact on Vail business. The first is a link to the Vail local newspaper and it's legal section that lists hundreds of foreclosure announcements. The second is an article about the wealthy and their concerns over their wealth evaporation, and being able to afford the lifestyle they had enjoyed. Enjoy. Any feedback would be appreciated. Hadn't been to BC since last season. I'm considering a short position in MTN as I can see their industry really changing.

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    • To see all the Vail real estate foreclosures click on the link and search in April (not May as it will come up). When you go to the site it will show May and all the public notices of foreclosure haven't been posted yet. Checking the back months is most informative.

    • Excellent link regarding the wealthy. People have the misguided notion that the wealthy don't pull back their spending, the article proves otherwise.

      Article did not touch on the pseudo wealthy that was so prevalent in the last few years. These are the wannabe wealthy and they act the part, until of course their credit dries up. Then they suddenly become middle class again as their party ends. These people tend to be younger and were a big part of MTN's business.

      MTN will feel the pinch in the upcoming season as many reservations are done well in advance. So while this past season was "okay", the next couple years will be a struggle for them as debt and change of attitude will take some time.

      My advice is to short. I've been shorting into this light volume advance from $27-29. Remember this stock has over doubled in a few weeks. Do these buyers really think happy days are here again and we can turn this ship on a dime?

158.04+0.50(+0.32%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT