Any ideas on why the huge drop? Intrawest and ASC also hit 52 week lows today. Vail's purchase of the Village at Breckenridge was an excellent move. The restaurants and lodging give them the opportunity to capture more of the skier's dollar. Meaning, if skier visits and spending stay the same, Vail makes more money.
skihog: you seem to be fairly erudite for a ski instructor; congratulations on living the good life and knowing something about finance, or at least paying attention to finance. MTN is primarily a real estate play and that is why it, ASC and Intrawest have been hammered along with the fact that with the "global economy" melting down everywhere analysts are predicting gloom and doom for tourism companies. Since these stocks - IDR, SKI and MTN - are all real estate intensive, and in the case of SKI and MTN (esp. SKI) highly leveraged, it ain't boding well.
Good description: Cocktail stock. You guys better have a good winter just to keep these stocks from falling further. ASC/SKI may be gone (or restructured dramatically) within 18 months. They'll probably try to pull a big hype on the upcoming Olympics in UT where they are agressively (some would argue haphazardly) developing the Canyons. Seriously, there will be a small rebound in these stocks in the next few weeks, then I predict a drop back to around these levels until the ski season gets well underway. From that point, these stocks will perform according to the winter. Since MTN is only in the WEST, there exposure is more one-dimensional. IDR and ASC/SKI have to worry about the EAST as well. Which can be a plus, obviously if the weather out west sucks (but not the east) or if the east and west are both good.
rgc: If you have given up skiing and have never been to VAIL, what the hell are you doing in this stock or on this board? Just wonderin'
Um . . . read my post again. I DID go to Vail, along with a host of other resorts in CA, CO at UT as well as Canada. If you must know, after moving from the West Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, the ability to go on weekend ski trips has been somewhat limited. (Friendly) suggestion - before badgering folks about their posts - first, READ them CAREFULLY.
Reasons (among others) for getting into MTN:
- Due-diligence showed good long-term growth potential. I view the small cap downturn as a temporary thing. F Y I - take a look at Zacks research - MTN rates pretty well compared to the others in this sector.
- Diversity - I wanted to get a little exposure to the leisure sector. Face it, regardless of the economy, there will always be a good number of fat cats who will be taking their winter jaunts to places like Vail. Also, (short term), the World Championships in January might provide a little pop to the stock.
Pretty good reasons if you ask me. Hope this answers your