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Atlas Energy Group, LLC Message Board

  • jrp1324 jrp1324 Jul 27, 2012 1:40 AM Flag

    Interview Morgan Stanley MLP analyst

    SM: I would say another one right now would be Atlas Energy L.P. (ATLS:NYSE). This is more of a small-cap name. The current yield is about 3.3%, but it has the highest distribution growth of any company that we cover right now. The distribution is currently $1 per unit, and we see it growing to $1.87 per unit for the full year 2013. Atlas is unique in that it owns the general partner of two separate companies. One company is Atlas Resource Partners L.P. (ARP:NYSE) and the other is Atlas Pipeline Partners L.P. (APL:NYSE). The Atlas Pipeline assets are in some of the best basins—Oklahoma, Mississippi and West Texas—where there is a tremendous amount of expansion opportunities. We believe Atlas Pipeline will be growing cash flow by 10% or so over the next year. Atlas Resource Partners is a unique exploration and production (E&P) company with very little debt on its balance sheet that has been out buying assets from distressed E&P companies. The combination of the organic build at Atlas Pipeline Partners and the acquisition and production growth story at Atlas Resource Partners is fueling Atlas Energy L.P. Our target for Atlas Energy L.P. is $48. We see a lot of upside there.

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    • $1.87???

      Well, I'm less optimistic. I believe I saw much higher estimates for 2013 at the end of 2011. NGL pricing is hurting, but I'm really waiting to hear about the expansions and if they are on schedule.

      I'd take $1.87 as it would mean we would be at about .50 in the 4th quarter. Its a long way from .25 to .50.

      Jim - any comment on ARP's acquisition?

      • 1 Reply to davidbdc2001
      • ARP
        Love the business plan. Buying producing properties and hedging cashflow positive.
        Biggest advantage IMO is getting the drilling locations basically for free. These will be sold to the partnership program at good returns to partners but great returns to ARP.
        I hope they do some more as drilling inventory is what will make this a most compelling story.
        That and I suspect we have seen a major bottom in natural gas prices.
        Prices should overshoot on the upside if gas behaves like most markets. This should pull up ethane and propane for a while and the Atlas companies will be very profitable.
        I should hope this will happen in the next 2 years.
        Negative is if the U.S. actually starts using a lot more of methane the associated NGL's might keep that market over supplied for a very long time.
        APL has so much growth ahead of it that maybe lower margins on a lot more volume will be fine.
        Still a very compelling growth story.

    • Thanks, Jim.

      I am going to guess that this is the analyst from Morgan Stanley who authored the positive report that Bosox-Pats mentioned a while back.

      Not sure how the $1.87 compares to previous estimates for 2013 but it will work for me.


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