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Harvest Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

  • pinvestment pinvestment Mar 19, 2013 10:32 PM Flag

    venezuelan unit value is the key, in the US HNRs stake would be worth 1.2+ billion USD ($30 per share) or more

    been watching this for a while. I became more interested after Chavez passed away. its not clear how quickly the govt may change for the better but there appears to be a lot of value here and that doesn't include the other exploration assets. With all of the bears on this board I would guess that many disagree

    so HNR's stake was going to be sold for 700+ million ($17 per shares and 7X the current HNR market cap) before Chavez's death. After tax that would have been 500+ million ($13 per share and 5X current market cap)

    At $3.50 a share the value is impressive but HNR needs a way to unlock it

    Who knows what the other exploration assets are worth? I can't figure that out. The restatement seems to be rather dumb since it is based on a event that occurred in 2011. The "going concern" statement is a formality.

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    • Your calculation is totally wrong and your comment lack of knowledge...from the value of Venezuela "assets" to even the real outstanding that you use for the calculation of the pps...You have no idea what you are talking about!!!
      Read few of my post regarding fair value and try to follow what is going with PDVSA recently to have an idea of what the "assets" are worth?
      Also, If they did not release anything regarding Gabon and stay silent after de-commissioning the rig after a piece of equipment stock you may be surprise to read what real potential Gabon will have(cost of the well probably about 20M for HNR 66% after the sidetrack).
      Do not assume anything with HNR until you get the HARD facts and then question them if they are not clear.

      Also, HNR has not been paid for almost 3 years and do not have one single dollar in revenue despite what they have claimed in the precedent filings. Last financing for about 65M is now probably almost gone and they need another equity financing of about 70MM just to survive the next 6 months. Who is going to give them the cash now? at what cost?

      Gabon BIG IF commercial, will need around 300MM dollars and about 4 to 5 years before they will get the first dollar in revenue....If they sell Gabon (their last possible asset) they will get peanuts for a dollar...HNR itself has even no idea what potential production in Bopd it will get if any? Read EGY and you will see it is not easy and it is not 2 wells that will make the field a high value.

      How do you want them to survive these years without cash?
      Do you know how much dilution HNR will need to pay just the salaries of the BoD with the option sar and phantom(bonus) they got??? and how about the 200 or 300MM for gabon for 4 years?

      HNR is TOAST and today was just the tip of the iceberg.
      Ignorance is not a bliss when it comes to trading!!! be very careful with this smoke company.
      But if you want just mortgage the house...go for it.

      Good luck,

    • yeah u said it "rather dumb".their whole course for the last 10 yrs is "rather dumb".they can not fool the common stock holder any more.what hnr is worth here and what it is worth in the bananna republic of vz. is 2 different thangs .u can pick your dream SCENARIO "ruler",or u can see the reality of preparation-Hnr. RULER,u remind me of don quixhote chasing the windmills. u can wallpaper your underground bunker duplex in the vegas desert with the stock certificates of hnr.another of your great investments in real estate.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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