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DARA Biosciences, Inc. Message Board

  • woodbarn woodbarn May 10, 2012 1:04 PM Flag

    Zack's thinks Soltamox can get 1.5% market like in UK, but drug failed twice before.

    Zack's thinks Soltamox can get 1.5% market like in UK (United Kingdom), but drug failed twice before. Report does not say or does not know that Soltamox failed once at Savient licensed to Cytogen. And Soltamox failed again with Oncogenerix, which failed to sell any since licensing it 9 months ago. Oncogenerix CEO was former CEO of Savient, so he has been involved with the drug twice already. He is now COO at Dara.

    I am skeptical of Soltamox getting the 1.5% market share in United States since the UK has a National Health Service which sets the price of all prescriptions at $12. But Zack's estimates Soltamox is going to sell for around $300 for one month supply in the U.S. Compare that to $24 for a three month supply Walmart charges for generic tamoxifen tablets. Very few people are going to pay big buck for Soltamox just because they have a hard time swallowing a tiny pill.

    Anyway, Zack's estimates Soltamox will sell $1 million Soltamox by end of year. I think it will sell like it has in the past, less than $50,000.

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    • Dude, from someone that knows mucho about this company. KRN5500 is going to kick some serious butt in pain management and make DARA a major takeout by a big pharma. That 3 or 4 price that someone posted on this board is a joke. Try 10 to 20! I'm the dude that has been buying the bigger blocks over the last several months. Work in the biz and in the know about the pharma business. Little advice, don't day trade this stock. You will soon be kicking yourself in the anus!

      • 1 Reply to barbing1965
      • KRN5500, a spicamycin, which is an antitumor antibiotic, underwent phase 1 clinical trial as a cancer drug by National Cancer Institute. It seemed to have major side-effects at doses similar to what Dara is using. That raises a red flag as Dara is using a potential "cancer drug" as a drug against pain.

        Dara started in 2006 and completed phase 2a in 2009 on 19 patients. That was almost 3 years ago. Is that not a long-time to study data? If it had potential, big pharma would have bought it, or it would probably be completing phase 3 by now.

    • Yeah who does Zacks think they are anyway, woody you're the smart one here....shucks you have all the answers.

      Really woodbarn do you honestly think that Zacks just spews their numbers out of vapor? C'mon if you don't think their report is worth the paper it's written on then that's your opinion and everyone has one. However if you ever stop to consider that the analysis they provide is based on oh, I don't know!! Corporate Interviews, research and investigation, statistics, Probability and Exponential Product Distribution techniques!!! duhhh you might learn something.

      Sure there is some value to historical relevence regarding past sales, but how much really applies here? I'll be willing to bet that Zacks estimates are far more likely to materialize than yours are. As a matter of personal opinion I would say that Zacks has already recognized pending sales in the pipeline, and based there estimates on that, even so that is likely to be conservative. Furthermore if five new sales people only bank $50k in sales for the remainder of the year then someone won't have a job very long...Let's see if sales exceed $50k by Jan 2013....shall we!!! Let's see what's said next week at the S.H. meeting.

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