Impatient traders have prevented warrant holders from exercising... There are probably at least 1M warrants @ $1. Look what happened when the 3M $0.76 warrants got cleared out (hint hint, look at mid-Jan).
Once those warrants are cleared out, the next bunch of warrants, about 700k, are at $1.3, and then it's relatively smooth sailings to $2.5.
There is nothing wrong with the stock, warrant holders are simply pounding away, as expected. Those who wait, will be rewarded. You can be sure that the next institutional holdings update is going to see a dramatic change.
Ok I did some actual DD, and here's where DARA stands:
There remains about 2.8 million warrants at ~$0.8 price, 4.9 million warrants at ~$1 price, and 0.7 million shares from the remaining A, B-2,and B-4 preferred stocks. There are then about 0.75 million at ~$1.31, and 0.9 million at $2.5.
Since the start of the year, about 6 million shares have been issued, bringing the total number of outstanding shares to 25 million. We don't know how much of those 6 million have actually been flipped (sold on the market), but since most of the volume has occurred in the ~$0.8 and ~$1.05 region, it stands to reason that a lot of shares were flipped. Most of the flipped shares are probably the shares converted from preferred shares, since the owner already paid for them... Warrants are only paid for when converted.
It's going to take a major, highly publicized move into the low $2s from an ODD + partnership announcement to consume all those converted shares. The news from this morning wasn't flashy enough to break through $1.0Xs, given that the potential revenue being dealt with is on the order of 10-30x less than KRN5500.
I should add that the moment the stock hit $1s, this stock has had to absorb a lot of new shares. But the job isn't done yet, and the timing of the ODD has misled rookies into thinking the PPS weakness has something to do with the application, when it's just warrant actions.
It's both. The lack of news about ODD is definitely contributing to people selling out because of impatience. On top of that, the longer it takes to get the news out, the more that investors will speculate that it is bad, regardless of whether or not there is any truth to that. Perception is reality.