The games you're betting your money on for earnings on May 2nd. Rogue Racing didn't even make it to a top grossing app, Frontline commando peaked at #55 on iPhone, tiny town disappeared on the iPhone charts within days, and most of Stardoms biggest money was made in December during it's release (Q4).
Granted CK, CKZ, and B&G were hanging out in the top 300 grossing, but do you honestly think that's enough to drive this stock up to over $5? January and February was brutal for Glu, they were struggling to have a game in the top 100 grossing on iphone and ipad.
You can make the argument that they have about 5 games in the top 50 grossing charts on Android, but they only account for 30% of glu's revenue. Not enough to impact revenues. Kindle fire users are at the bottom of the barrel and that market hasn't even evolved yet.
I'm not feeling earnings like I was last quarter. I'm out until after earnings and will buy back in regardless of any direction the stock moves. Just be careful, I watch the charts everyday on the App store, Android marketplace, and app annie.
The real run up starts probably 3rd week of May throughout 2012. Glu's hottest games haven't been released yet, they're saving them for the 2nd half of the year, starting with last weeks release of Deer Hunter Reloaded.
Surely you can digest the major difference between last summer and this May?
This time, the hype is replaced with awesome earnings growth and successful game releases. This company (De Massi) is fulfilling their promise that early adopters saw to begin with last year. Sometimes the street will drop a stock in the dunk tank for a few months. If the story remains the same and initiatives, such as game releases in this case, are delivered on, then the street takes notice, sometimes gradually, and sometimes violently- the latter of which is my prediction for May 2-4.
The important thing now is, GLU is moving forward with their new lineup, price moving up will help secure a buyout later... and there is nothing the blog writers, shorts, daytraders or bashers can say or do to shake the longs...
Let the games begin!!!!
Yeah very weak, I can see from you posting about games that didn't even come out in Q1.
I'll respond to this after earnings. Will you have the balls to still be here?
Or will you be a vapor like the other bashers, GLUMMIE and DAWG?
1) Tiny town isn't owned by Glu, if it was this would be a blowout quarter lol. Assume you meant small street.
2) You can't just look at iphone. Apple has two different platforms for their top grossing charts. Iphone and Ipad. Alot of Glu's games do much better on Ipad than Iphone due to screen size, resolution, processor etc.
3) You can't just look at the American market, while that is definitely the largest market - China also has a huge gaming market. In fact, downloads of small street are basically 3 to 1 to the american market. Managment also stated at the Roth conference that they were very happy with small street as it reached the #1 Top Grossing Game on both charts in China. The first glu game to do so! All of those revs come in this quarter.
4) Stardom released December 14, 2011 on IOS. So you think all the revenue for that game came in the first 2 weeks of launch and none in the previous 3 months. BTW its currently in the top 100 grossing on the iphone and ipad charts in the u.s. - 4 months after launch. That is a ridiculous statment.
5) Stardom didn't even launch until February on Android and reached top 5 grossing and stayed there for over 2 weeks. And is still in the top 25 - 2.5 months later. All of those revs go directly to this quarter.
6) No mention of amazon - which monetizes just as well as IOS and the VP of Glu is on record saying that revenues for q1 have increased by 1000% due to the kindle and in-app purchases (in which glu was apart of the beta program that started in late february.)
7) At least you were correct about Frontline Commando which did very well on all charts. BTW Frontline released the SAME DAY as Stardom - December 15, 2011. So your premise is off base to begin with.
8) I think you are correct not to include SvZ as it launched March 13, 2012. However, based on your stardom premise that all revs for that game were for the previous quarter, then I guess you need to include this one.
9) Rogue Racing is a flop - first one since infected, nightworld, toy village and boo town. Why do I mention those? Simple. Those 4 were launched in q4 2011 and still glu smashed earning estimates. So the big winners for q4 that were successful was contract killer zombies and blood and glory. The big winners for q1 2012 are stardom, frontline commando and small street.
Now that you are more informed - make your decision:)
Below are some more readings.
-- $1 on Apple's App Store is 89� on Kindle and 23� on Android
-- In-App ads set to overtake display ads in mobile advertising
-- Major social developer CrowdStar abandons Facebook for mobile
great post. i used to post here quite a bit, still holding glue with average of ~2.20 and a large stake.
appanie is a huge help, esp, that you can pretty well triangulate from their disclosure from Q4 re: how much certain games did in the first month etc and map it to the grossing ranks on appanie.
but q2-3 is where the explosive growth will happen imo - amazon store monetazing really well (and glu being in the pilot) + recent inapp purchases introduction and android growth.
company with huge growth prospects, in the right space, with mgmt that has proven its abilities (strategy of turn around from featurephone to smartphone and grip/blammo deals, which i think were spot on) and with M&A take out potential / hype factor.
bravo bravo. a brain in tact. You have more patience than me . Can;t stand moronics.
NO QUESTION NUMBERS WILL BE SMASHED. CRUNCHED !
And to all the "Monkeys numbers are nuts, Just wait.
I hear a Madmonkey Securities pre-earnings earnings update with breakdown.
good post Rclayto
You made no mention of their other games, especially Small Street amd SvZ Also, did you only check U.S charts? When using app annie, be sure to take advantage of the fact that it is global. Also, it is more like 8-10 out of top 100 on android, sometimes 11