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Adobe Systems Incorporated Message Board

  • rav_shenoy rav_shenoy Sep 15, 2009 4:36 PM Flag

    $30 Possible this Friday?

    any thoughts?

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    • I suppose it's possible, though in this market it's very hard to get anything to go down significantly.

      Fundamentally, I don't see any reason for a huge drop. The report wasn't bad. I did think the price had run up too far prior to earnings, which I why I went short in the last hour before the close. It seemed to me that blowout earnings were priced in after a 15% runup in less than two weeks, so I thought the odds of the stock dropping even on good earnings were high enough to risk the short even in this market.

      Technically, I see pretty good support around $33.50 which was the resistance area for most of August. I think there's a decent chance that will hold at least for awhile. I'd be very happy with 2 bucks a share profit on the short if we get there. If it does break below $33.50, I see more support a little under $31.

      With $30 being more than 15% below today's close, two technical support levels between here and there, and the report not being bad, I just don't think it will go to 30 by Friday, even with options expiration - unless the whole market finally collapses under the weight of being extremely overbought for such a long time (which is certainly a possibility).

    • below that for sure

108.4276-0.6024(-0.55%)12:52 PMEDT