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Adobe Systems Incorporated Message Board

  • cpasific cpasific Jun 23, 2010 3:46 PM Flag

    ADBE will be single digit or banckrupt

    very soon

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    • I really don't like to resort to name calling, but you're an idiot. Whenever I read such posts I think it's wishful thinking on the part of the basher. Obviously you don't know anything about Adobe. Here, read this:
      Time to Dip Into Adobe
      Maxim Group upgraded the software giant to Buy from Hold.Article

      Adobe Systems (ADBE: Nasdaq)
      By Maxim Group ($32.76, June 23, 2010)

      WITH THE CS5 UPGRADE cycle apparently off to a solid start and with management and channel checks [trend research] suggesting significant pent-up upgrade demand, we are becoming increasingly confident that Adobe Systems (ticker: ADBE) can return to a high level of its user base upgrading to CS5 [Creative Suite 5 software program]. As a result, we are raising our fiscal 2010-2011 estimates to reflect not only robust unit growth but also a slight blended average selling price (ASP) increase.

      Reflecting our higher forward estimates, we are raising our target price to $40 from $38, applying the same one times price/earnings-to-growth ratio and 19 times fiscal 2011 price/earnings multiple, versus its peer group of roughly 20 times. We are also upgrading Adobe to a Buy from a Hold, reflecting our view that the company should continue to outperform consensus expectations.

      On Tuesday night, Adobe reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results. Total revenue was $943.0 million versus our forecast of $912.9 million, consensus of $905.9 million, and above the head-end of management's $875 million-$925 million guidance.

      The company achieved pro forma earnings per share of 44 cents, in line with our forecast of 44 cents and high end of management's 39 to 44 cent guidance, but slightly ahead of consensus of 43 cents.

      Creative Solutions revenue was $532.7 million (positive 29% year-over-year and positive 23% quarter-over-quarter), versus our forecast of $506.4 million. Management noted that CS5 upgrades were strong, up 15% over initial CS4 sales (for the first five weeks) and in line with the CS3 upgrade rate. While most of the growth (versus the CS4 upgrade cycle) was from higher unit sales, we believe that average selling prices also increased due to: (1) Adobe including Flash Catalyst as well as Omniture in CS5; and (2) due to a larger proportion of CS3 users upgrading (the upgrade price for CS3 users is $200, or 33%, higher than for CS4 users).

      Knowledge-worker revenue was $156 million (positive 13% year-over-year and minus-6% quarter-over-quarter), versus our forecast of $158.3 million. The year-over-year growth demonstrated continued demand for Acrobat as companies migrate toward a paperless environment.

      Omniture revenue of $83.5 million (minus-5% quarter-over-quarter) versus our forecast of $81.1 million. Omniture revenue was down quarter-over- quarter primarily due to an extra week of revenue in the fiscal first quarter. During the quarter, Adobe added 100 net new Omniture customers.

      Enterprise revenue was $76.7 million (positive 7% year-over-year and minus-4% quarter-over-quarter), versus our forecast of $72.5 million, Platform revenue was $45.4 million (positive 23% year-over-year and minus-3% quarter-over-quarter), versus our forecast of $47.5 million, and Print and Publishing revenue was $48.7 million (positive 5% year-over-year and positive 5% quarter-over-quarter), versus our forecast of $47.1 million.

      Finally, while Europe represents 29% of Adobe's total revenue, management noted that it has seen no adverse impact on demand for its products due to the sovereign debt crisis. However, foreign exchange negatively impacted Adobe's Europe revenue by $22 million on a quarter-over-quarter basis. On a constant currency basis, Adobe's Europe revenue grew 9% quarter-over-quarter.

      -- Mark Harding

    • my suggestion is you short it, but give us a screen shot when you short it :)

    • At this rate probably in 2 weeks.

 
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