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Adobe Systems Incorporated Message Board

  • snow.ball7 snow.ball7 Dec 14, 2013 3:53 PM Flag

    This move ruined my life.

    All I have is January 57.50, 55, and 49 puts.
    Not even going to look at this for a month.
    Accurately predicted the poor earnings.
    Suffering for using logic.
    Will quit market forever if stock does not go down by January.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • U can NEVER predict with 100% accuracy the short term direction of a stock, BUT it appears u have about a month before your position expires out of the money. My expectation is that u should make at least some money off the Jan 57 and Jan 55 Puts, but my guess is that if ADBE trades down around $50 that this will be a very strong technical barrier for SHORTS / PUTS to break, especially if the easy money continues to flow from the Fed. But I am on your side. Read my write-up on the Message Board about ADBE's share repurchase program.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • You accurately detected this scam, so happy this is going in your direction today.

      Remember, options are for suckers, and this is not going to go straight down. Maybe pay attention to the support levels and unload your short-term puts if you can. (50 DMA is around $55 ?)

    • You r right my friend. Just hang in there, it just make take some time.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • I think you should quit the market. Since you don't understand how to read all numbers properly. You're misfit for trading. Granted some of the uptick was due to bubble in cloud but ADBE results were not as weak as you're thinking.

      Their ARR and Deferred Revenues are growing and ADBE is buying back stock (they bought over 1B worth of stock or over 26M shares last year). They are bullish on how they are TRANSITIONING the business.

      The street is betting big on ADBE and some naysayers woke up and gave up on their short position.

      Best you can do is to accumulate ADBE if it comes down below 60s.

      Unless the market corrects 10% over the next month (very unlikely) your puts will EXPIRE worthless and you should Quit trading since you don't understand how market works!

      • 1 Reply to fedrally001
      • they are projecting only 20% growth in cloud over all 2014, with no benefit to earnings
        OR revenues overall. So how can a downgraded bottom line, and only 20% projected
        growth in their part of the business which everyone is going banana-head about, be worth
        60x non-GAAP earnings ? And 30x their loftiest projections over the next 3 years ?
        The co has 1.5B in debt, and only earned 65 million on GAAP basis. Next quarter will be far worse, by their own statements. Is that worth a 30 Billion market cap ? What about the insider sales ?
        No, this stock is overvalued by far, and in a bubble mode, nobody knows if it will be 5-7 dollars lower come January, so please, refrain from the insults, as if you've never gotten caught on the wrong side of a trade... time will tell.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

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