I would say that the rise is based on wild optimism about upcoming earnings. Adobe's earnings disappointed in December, but because cloud subscriptions beat the forecast, Adobe stock soared out of the low 50s. You can expect the same thing leading into next month's earnings release. Earnings will disappoint, but cloud subscriptions will be knocked out of the ballpark. What goes unsaid is that the subscriptions are deeply discounted -- more than 60% off list. My mailbox is jammed with Adobe pleading to subscribe at almost any price. Unless some analyst snaps to this naked emperor, the marketplace will think that Adobe is the 8th wonder of the world. In reality, they charge more than almost anyone is willing to pay for the creative cloud and graphics professionals without deep corporate pockets are sticking with their CS6 or lower software. Your guess is as good as mine as to when institutional investors wake up to the reality of lower earnings for Adobe all the way to the horizon because of the utter failure of the cloud subscription software model.
You are spot on. One additional point being missed is that the reported figure for creative cloud bookings is inflated by the inclusion of deeply discounted ETLAs. Point is that "growth" is being achieved through deep discounting, which is counter to the promise of higher revenue per subscriber.
So you say its that the Institutions are not selling, and since they hold 91% of the float the stock has almost nothing to do except go up. Yahoo Finance does say Institutional investors have sold 14.6 million shares or 3% from the "prior quarter to the latest quarter." The big 5 Institutions are Primecap Management Co, ValueAct Holdings (Jeff Uben), Bank Of NY Mellon Corp, and FMR (Fidelity), LLC all with a 5% or greater stake. I really have no opinion on the management of any of these Funds as I just don't know the players.
Didn't I tell you it was about to break out @ $62.40? Didn't I tell you the money flow and the chart was going to kill the short? This stock was The buyer's stock to accumulate once the correction was over and it was. Institution is accumulating.
I'm serious now - What gauge are using to identify the money flow into this stock? And what technical pattern on the chart do you see that indicates it was going up from $62.40? Perhaps I can learn from your insight. I can tell you this, and that is that ADBE has been rising on fairly weak volume.