Well at least i think it's over. Some (not me) think there could be up to another week before data collection. Anyway, being overweight CNDO, I am a little nervous. If you are not at least a little nervous, then you are at least a little stupid. I am supremely confident that if I had 10 of these CNDO opportunities, I would come out ahead, but alas we only have the one first shot at it. Sooo, to relax myself, I was looking at a real good older SA article that talked about the Humira/Remicade clinical numbers. So for Humira you had a 34% placebo response and approx. 55% positive clinical response from the drug. So just a 21% difference above placebo and they rule a multi-billion dollar market. The 21% is great for this hard to treat illness refractory to many therapies. But, they measured positive response with merely a CDAI reduction of 70 or more!!! So i figure using our CDAI of 100 or more for positive response if roughly we get the 15% we are looking for, that pretty much corresponds to the 20ish pct that Humira achieved (Remicade results were similar). Think about how we will match up in that case? Really any statistically significant result at all and we pretty much have in principal duplicated efficacy for the best selling drugs in the world, and we are much much much safer. IMO the upside is hard to exaggerate. It's to huge and too real. IMO the upside number estimates with positive results are way too low. Okay so I got that off my chest. Now I can relax. Win or lose I will never look back and say this wasn't a good and educated risk versus reward bet.
In next few months we will have:
1) TRUST-1 result, Crohn's;
2) TRUST-2 result, Crohn's;
3) UC trial enrollment starts;
4) Young adult autism result;
5) Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis result;
6) MUCUS result, UC;
7) HINT-2 result, RRMS.
Anything else? CNDO is not for faint-hearted this half year.
Good post - but i think the study will fail, unfortunately. That said - this is a very close call. Merrill thinks it will succeed, AF thinks it won't - i'm not sure and have stayed out of CNDO due to a lack of conviction but i really do see both sides. Good luck.
I have said this lately that trials will fail and I believe this is no close call at all. It will fail by wide margin.
Merrill does not have a clue. AF may have not done research but openly he admits not believing in HH.
As I sais last week start selling. Look where share price are now and on top of it NO one I mean not even PR from CNDO makes any public statement.
If you really go into history there is only ONE slide show which was devloped when HW joined CNDO.
All they are doing is showing it over and over again.
This is speculative stock and company. HW, LR and GA high level people does not loose any thing at all. Well trigfest did mentioned that why would HW join CNDO with salary of 135K. He may be throwing that money on one of the parties. Well exactly he does not care if he loosed 200k of what he has invested in CNDO. Pl do not talk about stock options here. Basically he got a new job and on his resume to be a CEO of company. Plain and simple.
Get out now guys. This will be less than 2$ within 3-5 weeks.
I must say that the CNDO Yahoo message board is very useful thanks to the knowledgable longs. I would have felt more nervous without you, trigfest and a few others! Having said that, I did my due DD and I feel as confident about success with CNDO as I did last year with ACAD before their P3 readout. At that time I felt very alone with my bullish view and I couldn't fathom why others couldn't see the obvious.. Unfortunately, I sold my ACAD after 200%, if I had held until today it would have been 1000%.. Hopefully, I will not make the same mistake with CNDO.