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Himax Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • dalton880 dalton880 Aug 27, 2013 2:04 PM Flag

    2014 analyst estimates haven't changed

    Still around $.65 for 2014. It amazes me the street is only attaching a 9 PE going forward to a company with the expected growth of HIMX, and with the top customers they have, and the recent Google news.

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    • I have much lower estimate vs the sell side analysts. My number for 2014 EPS is only US$0.5 (without Google Glass), or + US$0.1 (if they can ship 6mn units in 2014, CFO said they are shipping 1 mn in 2013 anyway) so a US$0.6 for 2014 EPS for my bull case.

      I am using a 16x PE given that their core business is a 20-25% (told by CFO).. with Google Glass with be a 40% growth co... just be realistic.. im not using 30x PE, I just use 16x based on ( 0.8x PEG on a 25% growth business = 20x and given another 20% discount on liquidity = 16x)..

      2014 EPS (base case) = US$0.5 x 16 = US$8 (that's the base value for Himax without Google Glass).


      My trading range will be US$5-10

      - my10 comes from (US$0.5 + 0.1(6mn shipment in 2014)) x 16 = US$9.6
      - my 5 comes from (US$0.5 x 10 = US$5) ... I think 10x PE for a 20-25% growth company with 4-5% dividend yield is pretty pathetic but I can live with it...

    • Himx disappointed last qtr so you have doubters. The one positive is that China seems to be growing and this should help. Market wants results not promises. Earnings and guidance would get the stock at new highs. Patience

      • 2 Replies to gagielom
      • gagielom,

        You go back and read HIMX guidance for 2Q 2013 as they hit their guidance. It was the analysts who were wrong. I posted that here. Their EPS was also up around 25% from 2Q 2012.

        So, HIMX met their own guidance and grew earnings year over year by 25+%. I say it was the analysts who were wrong.

        I will grant that revenue looks a bit light in 3Q and that is where most of the focus is. But, from an EPS basis, HIMX guided 3Q 2013 higher than 3Q 2012 by a larger range of 5% to 25%.

        So, HIMX only dispappointed those who had expectation higher than was guided. Earnigns are growing. You should pay closer attention and inform yourself.

      • "Market wants results not promises"

        Exactly what i was thinking. We need some results but that could be a ways away. For the time being, we will have to deal with people shorting.

    • the problem is the average investor is nebecape in skill and just sells in a panic whenever it goes bad, then theyll buy back in after a big announcement at $7.50 then complain on a pullback

    • tpdost Aug 27, 2013 2:27 PM Flag

      There are larger bids than asks, and the bidders are being very patient on the level II. Just tells me that "the street" is loading up. Catalyst for an upswing will be news, which as I said before is pretty rare here. I think it's the retail, smaller investors that are largely ignoring the stock at the moment.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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