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Himax Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • southbeachtrader southbeachtrader Oct 29, 2013 8:05 PM Flag

    Realistically what price do you see Dec 31, 2014....

    I know everyone here is very bullish and has price targets that are insane while the bashers have price targets and plans to see us at $2. Realistically what price do you see on new years eve 2014. I personally have my target at $24 bc Mark Gomes one of the first big writers about HIMX believes with LCOS ramp up EPS will be $1.18 and not $.60 so at 20x earnings and potentially a lot of google glass hype, Im thinking right around $25 or slightly under.

    Now That's if all goes perfect, I think a not so warm reception of glass and we stay in the $13-15 range all of next year.

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    • Only my opinion, but I could see $12-$15 depending on next week's financials (short term affect despite no real long-term concern). March 2014 I will still say upwards of $16-$17 depending on how much support GOOGLE GLASS gets (again despite this is just a little piece of HIMX). If the price would go much higher, someone would be better off buying HIMX all together and take the entire 75% of the market.

      HIMX P\E is great. Market is primed for them. Inst. Ownership is ready. Outside chance of $20.....and yes, I am hoping for that as I have more money than I should tied into this one single company,

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Hey southbeach,

      Realistically we should be talking about a price range and not a singular price. The $1.18 EPS for 2014 is a high end estimate and not shared by many. The Yahoo Analysts Estimates page shows the EPS range as $0.52 to $0.78. So, you should consider that range along with the $1.18.

      Myself, I would conservatively guess at the higher end of the $0.52 to $0.78 and could accept $0.75.

      But, the other very big factor/multiplier is the P/E. I generally get this from a 0.75 to 1.0 PEG.

      So, at $0.30 EPS in 2012, $0.39 EPS in 2013 and $0.75 EPS in 2014 and perhaps $1.00 EPS in 2015, you have an easy growth rate of 33% so lets use a 25 to 30 P/E.

      Taking the $0.75 and 25 P/E, you have $18.75 share price and $22.50 at a 30 P/E.................all with at least a $0.25 dividend payment which should not be forgotten.

      Fast Forward to year end 2015 and the $1.00 or higher and you get $25 to $30 share price. As earnings are growing at an estimated 33%/year, the share price should grow at the same rate given a static P/E.

      But, I would also say there is a 30% chance HIMX gets taken out around $18 to $23 or so in March to June 2014 (like the idea of INTC at a 1 to 1 share exchange which gets us around $23).

 
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