HIMX has already missed by lowering estimates. That is mixed into the price already. Everything "known" is mixed into the price already. What is going to make HIMX trek upward is great news on LCoS futures, Glass news we don't already know, surprising rev/profits, MSFT agreement or other big "unknown" news.
You are actually only partially correct. HIMX did not guide for a huge beat this quarter (6% to 25% EPS gain over 3Q 2013 which is still decent given the industry and others), but the analysts are projecting almost a penny above the upper end of HIMX guidance..................just as they did with 2Q 2013.
I don't know if they are setting HIMX up as some headlines last quarter was for a miss of a penny............but that was the analysts' error as HIMX actulaly hit the high end of their guidance.
So, if HIMX again hits the high end of their guidance, they could still miss the analysts estimate by a penny.
HIMX will be looked for two primary things:
- Obvious LCoS and whether these are being sold or stockpiled for later sales.............and then monthly production rate and plant capacity expansion
- Health of underlying base business where HIMX is still very well positioned within the Chinese markets but there have been some inventory corrections and then slowdowns in the large panel (ultra HD TV's and others) displays.
Still, HIMX should do around $0.40 this year which will be 33% growth over 2012.............and 98% of that is without any Ggoogle Glass or LCoS which bodes very well for the future.
If watching HIMX daily was not so exciting, I would almost agree with the others about just forgetting about it and looking in March or June when it is well above $15 and perhaps $18 as the call options seem to indicate.