First, you all know that I am very bullish on Nuance from my prior posts. However, we are going up very fast and I have a very large position relative to my my other investments and assets as a whole. I sold a small piece of my position at about 18.50 and am considering selling some more at about 19. I am a little torn though, as I believe we are likely to go much higher, well into the 20's in the near future, especially if the correction for the macro-market is coming to an end, which I think it is. I am curious what the rest of you out there are doing who have been long term holders of large postions...Holding pat, taking some profits or adding to your holdings. I appreciate any advice/feedback.
6/22 FB downgrades NUAN and now at nearly $2 higher they upgrade. Do they see what I see or is there some magic in their outlook??? If market stabilizes next week and beyond and it should as there seems to be an adversity to risk crunch vs a cash shortage thus U Sam gets in, NUAN should get some tailwind. Proper price at these earnings is 20 plus. I am patient, but do enjoy seeing it run, especially after a nice buying dip.
I think if you look at NUAN's price history over the past couple of years, you'll see it has taken some big hits after qtrly earnings announcements. Otherwise, the movements have been fairly steady.
With a stock moving up, your big concern is a major reversal. So my approach is to buy short term puts just before the earnings announcement. All options have heavy time premiums, so holding them at all times will chew up too much of your profits. After the event has passed, close your put option.
If you are considering selling, be sure you know what you'll do with the money. If it is for living expenses, great. If you are going to reinvest it, you'll have to find a better investment than NUAN to make it worthwhile. In fact, since you'll pay taxes on your gain, the replacement investment has to out perform NUAN just to break even.
If you are overweight on NUAN because of the stock's performance, your problem isn't NUAN: its all the other stocks you've bought that haven't performed as well. If they did, you'd still have a balanced portfolio.
So many people sell their winners to make up for their losers (I've done it, even though I know it is wrong). If you are selling NUAN because some other stock went down, that's the wrong reason to sell, IMHO.
Sell it all, go buy a new car, and live it up. Can't take it with you when you die. I am only kidding.
Personally, I have owned NUAN/SSFT since .75 years back. I always held a protion for the "ride" and sold the rest to lock in profits, and bought it back on the dips. A few times I bought higher because it didn't retrace enough.
The suggestion of doing options as hedging sounds like a good idea. Never tried it, but have not taken the time to understand it.
The other suggestion of just holding it all is not bad either. It has worked well for many investors.
I opened my position in NUAN at 8 and added a bigger one at 15. I'm planning to hold a few years, expecting a big rise over time.
4 weeks ago I went at vacation to Cuba, cut off from news and internet-connections. To prevent a crash in the market I hedget my postion in NUAN with put options and stop loss orders for the other long positions.
It was worth it, most of my stop loss orders were executed, while I was abroad.
The NUAN puts, expiring in October, I will hold till the market gyrations calm down. A serious crash (20 to 30 %) is still in the cards, in my opinion.
The worst case szenario for NUAN would be: NUAN goes down with a longer bear market (to 10 or so) and is bought by some gorilla (MSFT, GOOG) at depressed prices.
I've been here 5 1/2 years, bought in mostly in Jan/Feb 2002, somewhere around $5. I have traded some of those shares, but not too often. The % of NUAN in my portfolio is bigger than it should be, but like most others, I believe we're just getting started. In spite of all the bashing Ricci has received the past several years, he has done a damn fine job. He may not be the best at public speaking, but I believe he knows what he's doing business-wise.
I like this thread and the comments because I too am debating what to do- take profits now and try to buy on a dip or hold and even add more. I bought at an average of 9.23 but I would like more shares since I am just learning how to trade and didn't want to have too big of a position. very tempting to buy more but that is definitely alot of emotion working
My average is $3.00 and just added more shares yesterday after the numbers came out with the upgrades. I don't see a lot of risk in the future when NUAN is just starting to take off and attract attention. The company was riskier when the stock was $3.00 than it is now.
2008....I predict a solid $25 stock.
I've been extremely curious as to what percentage of their portfolios longs were holding in Nuance. Very impressed with everybody's honesty. Again, GLTA!
P.S. Sure is tempting to be all in nuance.
I'm holding @ an average basis of $4.20/share for 65% of the total investment portfolio, all share lots are Long Term with the oldest lot purchased in April of 1998.
As "letterfromsienna" explained.....
"For what it's worth, I'm holding indefinitely. From time to time I see big dips, but I don't need the cash short term, and could survive even a complete NUAN crash, albeit I'd be heck of a disappointed!
Beyond the basics of a roof over your head and food in the fridge, the best things in life seem to be free - or so it seems the older I get."
This works for me.....8^)
CONTINUED.....Good Fortune to All,
Same boat as well, holding sice 3.50. It jumped to 9 in 2002 and many thought I was nuts not to sell. Just got a call from Ameritrade. Broker saw the percentage I had in Nuance and was concerned. Told him I just couldn't pull out of something that I'd waited so long for to get to the beginning of it's maturity. My brother (CFO) thinks the best thing to do is let go of some and rebalance my portfolio. But when ever it crosses my mind to do so I think about Warren Buffet. Why did I buy this stock in the first place? Is the company behaving differently? Have my financial goals changed? Reflecting on these questions and considering Nuance is just beginning to roll, I can't think of a good reason to sell any. It's true, anything can happen, no such thing as a sure thing. But too many things keep this stock somewhat isolated from the problems the market is having. And when the market is good, why sell. So until somebody can tell me where there's a better place to put my money, I hold. And still tempted to buy more on dips. Call me crazy, but the risk/reward still seems to favor Nuance over anything else I can see out there.
Sorry for elaborating so much but you've asked a question that must be going through the minds of so many for so long and seen nothing but good transpire. GLTA!
L&H, SSFT, SPWX, NUAN, etc, etc, etc has been a highly speculative play from the beginning. As time has transpired and the space solidifies the upside opportunity increases in relation to the downside, some would argue. ie the bankruptcy possibilities as less today than 3-5 years ago. The next 3-5 years will be where the big $$ lies, if in fact this baby continues to gain traction. If the longs who have been here for 3 + years have lost their stomach for this its a good time to bail, on the other hand "Casey may dance with the strawberry blond" If so, and nobody-even Goldie- knows, you can back up the truck. imho of course. I don't expect much retrace from here in light of the recent headwinds that have been defeated in the macro.
Since you asked and as a long timer here, I will never sell my position held since 4.24. I do trade 10k lots very often for quick and sometimes not so quick profits. Usually I only hold for .15 a trade except when it gaps up. I held 10k that I bought a couple of weeks ago at 17.42. Got out today at 18.68. I now have no trading shares and will ride my long position into the sunset!!!