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Nuance Communications, Inc. Message Board

  • opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Nov 20, 2012 6:24 PM Flag

    A Look at NUAN

    Hagen said...

    "...the stock is down 7% so would expect some follow through selling this week."

    I wouldn't hold my breathe in too long waiting. Let's look at today's damage, shall we?

    NUAN was off 6.8% on 201% MORE than normal daily volume. Normal is 2.5 million; traded 7.5 million today. Closed within $.10 of the low for the day. Hagen, this IS a dead horse that you're whipping.

    Unless there is an acquisition being sewn together somewhere, NUAN is going nowhere for as long as you can see. Go back to previous posts...back as far as February, when NUAN disappointed. Look at the optimism that sprang forth---then look at the result!

    The next earnings report will come due on February 9, 2013. How many currently "long" investors are going to be on this board? I sure as hell won't. NUAN is a very poorly run company; the problem is that only the institutional investors know it. Retail investors refuse to understand why the "big guns" are bailing when "the numbers" look so good the them.

    This has a-l-w-a-y-s been our problem. We are faaaaar to optimistic; we invest with our hearts and our souls and charts and technical analysis be damned! We should invest the way most institutions do; they invest with the charts and technical analysis and the heart and soul are left out in the hallways.

    I won't go into my trading strategy here again. I would make one suggestion to anyone reading this: anyone who DOES NOT want to make the same mistake with their next stock purchase, as they have made with NUAN.

    Find a copy of William J. O'Neils book, "How To Make Money In Stocks".

    Before I get flamed here, let me tell you that I STILL own my 2,000 shares of NUAN.

    Will I sell them? Eventually. Why didn't I sell last February? Because I broke my first investment law. Never buy a stock back [once you've sold it] on "a story". I fell for it hook, line and sinker.

    My holding in NUAN is small. The other stock I own is SWI, which has performed very well this year. I bought SWI on October 14, 2011 at $24.50. Sold much of it July 25, 2012 when the "blow off" volume skyrocketed. Did SWI go higher AFTER I sold it? It sure did, but I have my profit in hand.

    In 25 years of investing in stocks, I have n-e-v-e-r bought at the bottom and I have always sold too soon. But ALWAYS [except for NUAN] have made a profit.

    We retail investors tend to hang on m-u-c-h to long when we get a profit in a stock. We need to learn to take our profits while we have them and NOT TO WAIT for MORE later down the road. The reason is that "down the road" is always a decline.

    In markets like this ALWAYS sell into a rally. ALWAYS take your profit while you have it. NEVER "double down" with a declining stock...

    DO NOT let this debacle sully your holiday in Thursday. Rather, let it be a lesson to you. Learn, read and don't EVER give up. Learn from mistakes. Don't make them again. Continue to believe in yourself and nothing will stop you from overcoming your faults and nothing will prevent you from your successes.

    May each one of us have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

    NUAN notwithstanding, each one of us has a cornucopia of things to be thankful for this Holiday season! Never forget that investing is a learning experience. NO ONE EVER stops learning, because things are ALWAYS changing.

    Holiday blessings to you and yours from Opal and her wonderful family!

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    • Opal, you and your family have a great Thanksgiving also. I appreciate your thoughts very much and like you I don't have blinders on. Do I make bonehead decisions? Yes I do! I quit kicking myself years ago and just accept my choices as my best analysis AT THAT TIME. Regrets weight tons, diiscipline weighs ounces. I know the fundamentals of NUANCE pretty darn well. I bought SSFT when the company was well south of a billion $ market cap. Look where it is today and the fundamentals are very solid and getting stronger each and every quarter. I've learned to believe in my own analysis when buying a stock. It's worked pretty darn good for me. I'm fortunate enough not to have to sweat these nasty falls. You will make money on NUANCE, be disciplined...and have patience with WP and Ricci. They are not stupid.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hagen,

      Apology forwarded to you. I misread the statement which I quoted in my post.

      I too would agree that some follow through selling might be in order. NUAN is now in the hands of the HF traders who will, in all likelihood, whip it [once again] into a frenzy of activity. It's quite clear that much [if not all] of the bad news is out. So, what's next?

      It's still possible for NUAN to hit the low $19 area. From there, a rally to the high $22 area or perhaps a break into $23 s not out of the question. Remember, there is a likelihood---but NOT the certainty. Some "value" funds may be buying in here---ride it up to these areas, then sell. They are desperate to show shareholders profit numbers too! They DO NOT buy and hold.

      Once they have a 10% or so profit locked in---they'll sell.

      Watch a chart from today onward and see what happens...and just how long it takes to happen.

      If you're fed up with getting hammered because of your "buy and hold" strategy, you too may wish to sell into any rally that approaches these numbers...

      Just my $.03...adjusted for inflation.

13.85+0.13(+0.95%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT