Carl's research isn't always right although his clout usually pulls others in when his positions are publicized by the media. His new tactics of using Tweeter boarder on "Insider Manipulation" as the filings usually verify his positions AFTER he tweets and the stock get a push upwards.
Remember as a hedge fund his team stratles positions with "Puts and Calls" to balence and take in income while the equities are manipulated daily, weekly, monthly, and especially by quarterly reports that usually uptick stocks before the good news (or bad in this case) regarding a quarter is released.
Hedge Funds know this and balance posiitions by taking advantage of their size and ability to move the float aka the squeeze that Icahn was able to do on HLF with the backing of others that followed him in (Soros being one of them).
It's naive to think hes losing money just because the stock is down, as more than likely his fund has been selling "Out of the money Call spreads" to mitigate his investment. Lastly, the race isn't over till his position is closed out, and so far everything I've read hasn't disclosed that hes sold, as a matter of conjecture perhaps on this weakness hes been accumulating more and averaging his positional costs downward. No one knows when Carl will push management and thats when the fun begins. If the stock continues upward its a sure bet hes put a floor underneath and is taking in more stock.