Now, they could in fact miss these estimates. But this is not a company that is on its way out of business. Indeed, it's trading at just about a market median PE going forward. When was the last time you could do that? Oh, right, when AMGN was at 31. That turned out OK.
I've taken profits off the table many times here - we'll see what happens in a couple of more years. I don't buy bumper-sticker sized stock analysis, especially when it's full of sh*t like your analysis of BGEN's cash flow. You must believe that Avonex sales are going to plunge - actually, it's the growth *rate* that's slowing. Sales are still growing.
Actually, gooie's analysis seems to be dead on. Two one trick ponies facing increased competition, hence the merger. If Biogen hadn't merged they'd burn through their cash in 5 - 6 years. Now their an anchor around Idec's neck. Congratulations!
Corrchess, it doesn't matter when you started investing, if you don't know when to quit, you aint shit.
Good luck. I'm only short 300 shares at 37.5. I think we will see 30 before its over. Both idph and bgen are the two most overvalued of the major biotechs. Both are one trick ponies and have been for some time.They both face declining sales and increased competition. That's why they are merging. I don't see the combined co as significantly better that the two seperate co's.