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Biogen Inc. Message Board

  • germantrader71 germantrader71 Jun 21, 2011 7:56 AM Flag

    DB upgrades BIIB to buy, PT$129 / large report, concerns adressed

    We see 3 areas of upside: BG-12, Tysabri & Hemophilia; upgrade to Buy
    We view Biogen Idec as the large cap biotech stock with the greatest opportunity
    for upside: 1) Our analysis suggests CONFIRM will show BG-12 is more effective
    than Copaxone & DEFINE data will remain strong. Combo BG-12 & daclizumab Q3
    data are under-appreciated. 2) We believe Tysabri will reach a positive inflection by
    YE:11 with most pts on drug being JCV negative in US. 3) Our due diligence
    suggests a greater likelihood of success for hemophilia trials in '12. This report is a
    deep dive into all 3 drivers. Upgrade to Buy & $129 TP.

    BG-12: Our work suggests CONFIRM will be positive for Biogen
    Consultants we spoke w/ suggest that BG-12’s top-line profile is BETTER than we
    had anticipated. In DEFINE, we expect diarrhea rates to be marginally greater vs.
    placebo & Avonex rescue to have minimal impact. CONFIRM data we believe will
    show BG-12 is at least as effective if not slightly better vs. Copaxone (but our
    checks suggest AS EFFECTIVE is sufficient for market uptake - esp w/ combo BG-
    12 + ABCR data). We raised our BG-12 ests to $3.2B+, 20% above consensus.
    Tysabri inflection point approaching-increases our confidence in $2.7B sales
    Our proprietary analysis of STRATIFY 2 patient enrollment suggests most patients
    will be JCV negative by YE11 in the US. This will increase duration of therapy and
    reduce drop outs. EU will follow shortly.
    We have raised the probability of success we assign to hemophilia
    Repeat dosing of several patients in the Factor IX study has already occurred. Our
    checks indicate no issues upon repeat dosing and this gives us greater confidence
    in success of Biogen’s hemophilia program (rFIXFc & rFVIIIFc), as neutralizing
    antibodies are key risk to these studies. We assign a 25% probability to $3.2B
    rFVIIIFc & $337M rFIXFc peak sales.
    Biogen’s Factor VIII (rFVIIIFc) therapy will be competitive, our checks show
    Our industry checks tell us that 2x half-life is about the max improvement achieved
    in any longer acting Factor VIII therapy. Therefore, we believe that the battle will
    come down to marketing and acceptance with hemophilia docs and societies. BIIB
    is the only company with pivotal studies in Factor 8, and we have heard growing
    excitement around BIIB's therapies with docs. Hence, if 2x is the half-life cap 􀃆
    BIIB is in the development lead 􀃆 BIIB should be first to market.

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    • My 2 yr target is $60 mainly based on safety data from their "potential blockbusters" in phase III.

    • and:

      DB will host 3 (!) conference calls for investors on Biogen:

      This report is 3 deep-dives in
      one: Join us for our
      conference call series
      Join us for a conference call **TUESDAY** 6/21 @ 10 AM
      ET to discuss:
      An OVERVIEW of our new 3-part
      (800) 309-8606 | Intl: (706) 679-0645 | Conf ID: 77616528
      Join us for a conference call **THURSDAY** 6/23 @ 10 AM
      ET to discuss:
      Our BG-12/3Q11 data catalysts &
      Tysabri DEEP DIVES 􀃆
      (800) 309-8606 | Intl: (706) 679-0645 | Conf ID: 77758455
      Join us for a conference call **TUESDAY** 6/28 @ 10 AM
      ET to discuss
      (800) 309-8606 | Intl: (706) 679-0645 | Conf ID: 77763949

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