Recip ...interesting take on what may happen if overall stock market tanks. Imagine ...a frenzy over DFSH ...I like the positive thinking!
I have also wondered what effect a stock market correction would have on DFSH stock ...my first thought was not good since afterall, it is a penny stock. But, then if you think about it the only thing that really matters for DFSH is contracts and either they will get some or not. If they do, then the share price will go up no matter what the overall market does. Plus Iraq will not stop rebuilding efforts or cut back on spending unless oil drops a lot (that is probably more of a concern).
I know many don't like waiting, but a decision on the Thailand tank contract is expected in the Spring of 2010 ...which isn't really too far away. Does anyone happen to have anymore insight into the liklihood of this? I know it was a very comprehensive proposal to The Royal Thai Army.
Dom: Not just DFSH...any stock that has incredibly solid fundamentals with incoming cash flow and terrific forward looking PE ratios(for DFSH this will only happen wth solid news that will instantly change the equation...also, it will not be the Thailand tank contract types that will come first, it will be commodities methinks). They will go nuts because so few will have such fundamentals outside of the precious metals, energy and a few other sectors.
As for oil, peak oil has arrived and it is unlikely there will be lower oil prices in spite of the derivatives machinations of Wall St. and the western Central banks/funds/Govs. ongoing in manipulating the energy markets. It is similar to the PMs...fraudulent paper debt promises will not be able to supply the demand for the real commodity. Sooner rather than later, settlements in cash or paper futures or rollovers will not be satisfactory in closing out contracts. (for instance, bullion banks are paying to have silver leased from the lest the real product is demanded)Only the real thng will suffice and if there is no "real thing" to deliver, then that is when the rubber meets the road. Additionally, if there is a strike on Iran by Israel for instance, or any other jolt in the ME, then oil will go nuts. When you say? Your guess is as good as mine but the day of reckoning is always one day closer and is long overdue. If oil jumps to $100 BBL just what do you think an oil contract via DFSH will be worth?
The boys on wall St. are all bluff and bluster, used to having it their own arrogant way. Unfortunately for them, the powers of the developing countries and the East know all this and they know a bluff when they see one. China, Russia, ME, SA and others are busily buying up gold every day that the suppressors keep it down. The end game is in play.
recipsaw, you make a lot of good points, and I agree with most of them, except when you look at the consequences of an IAF strike on the Iran nuke facilities....
....Instead of the resulting hike in the price of crude being a positive for DFSH, I see it as an overall negative, because although the fear factor after such an attack would indeed spike the price of crude, the costs and risks of actually shipping crude out or shipping anything else in would be much higher, whether it be commodities for Iraqi consumption or construction materials or road building products. I realize that sea lane transport is not the only way to get trade in and out of Iraq, but it is the most important way.
I know other investors here who view the aftermath of such an attack as being either neutral or positive for DFSH, so I might be a minority view here.
Let's hope that the trading world doesn't ever have to find out the answer to this particular question, but that rather the situation between Iran and Israel/the West can be resolved through less disruptive means. Personally I'm not too optimistic that a military strike can be avoided forever.
I remain optimistic, though, that good news is not that far away here. My optimism won't last forever, but right now there are reasons to expect some good trading weeks here soon at DFSH.