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Anthera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • ivoroshea ivoroshea Mar 24, 2012 10:54 PM Flag

    Will Keep Falling Until Friday, 30 March

    I think the recent vicious sell-off has to do with institutional owners. According to Reuters, institutions own a relatively high 62% of shares - even worse, the institutions own 97% of the free float.

    Here's the problem as I see it: a lot of those institutions have to disclose their positions at the end of each quarter to their investors. Based on the current $2.34 price, that equates to a fall on their Anthera position of 62% during Q1 12. That's not a pretty statistic. However, the fund manager can make his/her presentational problem go away by selling before the quarter end. My guess is several fund managers have been doing precisely that - particularly once they realised any run-up to the Lupus PIIb catalyst in June wasn't going to start in March.

    If this theory is right, then there'll be more carnage next week. I wouldn't be shocked if it fell to a $1.50-$1.75 range by Friday week.

    That would make it a brilliant entry point for the Lupus catalyst. It also suggests that no matter how painful it gets next week then existing shareholders should stick with their position - as the lack of persistent institutional selling in April should create a strong rebound.

    Well, that's my 2 cents.

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