I think the recent vicious sell-off has to do with institutional owners. According to Reuters, institutions own a relatively high 62% of shares - even worse, the institutions own 97% of the free float.
Here's the problem as I see it: a lot of those institutions have to disclose their positions at the end of each quarter to their investors. Based on the current $2.34 price, that equates to a fall on their Anthera position of 62% during Q1 12. That's not a pretty statistic. However, the fund manager can make his/her presentational problem go away by selling before the quarter end. My guess is several fund managers have been doing precisely that - particularly once they realised any run-up to the Lupus PIIb catalyst in June wasn't going to start in March.
If this theory is right, then there'll be more carnage next week. I wouldn't be shocked if it fell to a $1.50-$1.75 range by Friday week.
That would make it a brilliant entry point for the Lupus catalyst. It also suggests that no matter how painful it gets next week then existing shareholders should stick with their position - as the lack of persistent institutional selling in April should create a strong rebound.
Good post. It's the reverse Apple story...The funds are buying Apple for their window dressing...We are close to cash now, so definitely a good entry point. Just wondering what would happen should the Lupus data be negative. It would sound like the company has no pipeline and just cash. Anyone remember Praecis? Anthera may just sell themselves for the cash plus IP and pre-IND work and tax losses. Sub 3 is definitely a good entry....