Eisai felt that 60% of the America's revenue stream was worth a 1.2b rental fee without owning the IP so that puts 100% of the America's value at 1.8b with no IP or good will. Double that for the EU, and ignore Asia and we are at 3.6b just for Lorc revenue without the IP. In very rough terms, that puts a fair market value at about $15/share without even considering the IP or pipeline for diabetes or smoking cessation. Therefore, I don't think its crazy to estimate 5 billion or about $25/share as the floor to any buyout offer. With the IP pipeline and Lorc approval, I think 10 billion is more like it so even at 7 billion you are at about $40 share.
OK, go ahead and take shots at that as a starting point. I'm a scientist, so others here can do the economic math with a finer brush. GLTALs
Add kids to this model and then we have a real winner!
30 percent of American kids are over weight
Watch tv, play vidio games..... Junior time for your vitamins and your daily
All it takes is a bull-run to get a stock way over logical valuations. Anyone who played DNDN knows that. $8 - $50 like a rocket just on an approval. ARNA will dwarf that because theres a thousand fatties for every prostate patient and this drug is not a $90k script that only keeps you alive for an extra 6 mos. Some chubs will be on this stuff for decades.
hey jwtoigo... I agree that IP value is not even close to priced in... but that's because I've looked into the IP.
For example, BMY offered $4B for AMLN, primarily for two injectable T2DM drugs. Even the good DrKaul said Lorq has positive B-R for diabetes... HbA1c benefit on par with the 2 exenatieds.... and then there's the series of S1P1 and GRP119 compounds.... first in class folks.
Would you mind reposting the EMA schedule? It got buried among 5 posts per minute (and naked) shorts.
Agree, you can use sales estimates too.
40 easy in the next 4 yrs with successful launch.
Qnexa has an uphill battle in the EU, Lor-Phen will dominate the US market (less side effects and equal or better efficasy).
Thanks for your reply, but I really think my numbers are the buyout numbers. Optimistic perhaps but based on the relatively real numbers already put on the line by Eisai for a fractional part of the market and no IP. I personally don't think Eisai can hold its position and win the final bid.
Its just a SWAG, but at least its based on a few figures we know. If I'm Eisai sitting there with 1.2 billion chips on the table already and I don't own anything. I might be thinking of going all in and I don't think Pfizer and others will let that happen. Pfizer, for example, needs another on-patent block buster to replace Lipitor. Maybe they should be thinking "L" is their lucky place on the board!