I mean you pick the first weight loss Rx to be approved in 13yr, risk holding through Adcom and Pdufa just to see the share price coming down every day. Never in my life would I have thought a FDA approval will bring a share price down??!!
What a dissapointment and what to do now with my call options.
I understand where you are comming from. I dumped VVUS early on ,10,000 cheap shares for ARENA thinking they would get to the gate first. Look at VVUS it crawls higher every day and they still have no approval. WE cant get out of the trench. Some group or groups are "pinning" the stock to a tight range and wont let it break out.If it stays this way until the 17th "VVUS DAY", I feel we are going to loose. Trying to decide if I walk now.
better. The pre PDUFA run up was basically "approval priced in". If you believed everything the idiots here posts, then you didn't have a rational expectation. Anyone predicting anything other than $50 was name called and put on ignore. That's the kind of idiots that participate here.
A lot of us knew it wasn't likely to go to $50 a share. We also knew it would pop and then drop, so we sold the news. We were right, and all the punks and twits were wrong.
The clues to a limited rise: 1) HUGE short interest. 2) Financial media constant FUD attacks. Even when they acknowledged approval was likely, they switched gears and started predicting lackluster sales due to lower efficacy. 3) Another drug right behind it in the PDUFA pipeline - which is the financial media darling. Why would people jump into ARNA now when Qnexa might actually get approved? 4) ARNA halted the stock for the announcement, and investors didn't want to risk chasing ARNA, so they jumped into the other 2 supposed beneficiaries - but you couldn't have known that before approval.
After VVUS' PDUFA date, institutions and BP can make fact based rational decisions on where to put their money, and which company they might want to buy.
Right now, we are in a quiet phase. There won't be any binary events to drive it up (except maybe a CRL for VVUS) until definitive news comes from Europe, or earnings reports show trends. Don't expect much, and don't believe the pie in the sky predictions from the idiots here.
Michael Murphy's prediction was spot on. He predicted a pop of $14-17, then a pull back of about $3 as the shorts tried to FUD it back down (that's why some of us sold). He also predicted a likely move, slow and up until future events.
Try to learn from it.