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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • patrick4bateman patrick4bateman Jul 25, 2012 9:21 PM Flag

    How long can "they" keep the price down..Serious input only please!

    We saw how they tried to keep FB from not falling below $38, that lasted a few days at best. How long will it last with ARNA you think this will be the last week before the ammo runs out? Anyone have any real input on this matter, because it seems that we have some real honest longs holding up this wall!

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    • Lets not forget the cost to market and advertise.

    • The price will remain down or constant until the crap spinning by trashy mouth writers wears thin and demand for the stock accelerates. EU approval with a decent earnings report will spike the price. However, expect the trashy mouth writers throwing their ridiculous crap at ARNA.

    • Don't be so naive! In fb's case they held it up for the last 10 minutes of the 1st day. This is not the same thing here. The stock sits where it belongs for now. No one is ho;ding it down imo. I an long but I'm also smart enough to know that this company will not bring in its 1st penny until the end of the year. It's all about their sales now and the street is not convinced this drug is going to be a hit. Diet drugs have come and gone over the yrs and their sales have been a dud for the most part.

    • Well Spoken there Risk....The real Long, Longs, have the patience being tested soo many times before by the MM Bag-O-Tricks. I must say, they surely have taken the fun out of the victory! The battle continues for the ARNA Army...I am resolved to beat them. I have stated many times that there would be many chances to buy-in and make money as several milestone events unfold. This is a time to chisel away picking up more shares. Planning a bigger buy-in for myself in a few days ahead. Switched all my dividends out of DRIP plans into cash accumulation at the start of 2012 planning on a large ARNA buy after approval happened.

    • To begin, I agree that EMA approval is definitively a huge benefit for Arena. I am not at all convinced, though, that European approval is priced in at current levels. Moreover, what you fail to consider is that Euro and ROW markets are enormous (Excuse the pun) and Arena currently does not share any monetary distribution for Belviq in these future territories.

      Furthermore, that “slice” you refer to - between Arena and Eisai for the U.S. and recently announced expanded regions - is not some major dilutive component as you seem to suggest. Actually, I embrace a contrarian observation. The reason is that you have obviously failed to take certain elements into consideration. Here are just a couple of examples, and I’ll let fellow longs chime in with additional positives.

      Arena is actually brilliant for taking full advantage of Eisai’s established presence in interrelated specialty fields. Their foot is already in the door of medical facilities throughout the Americas. They have also been planning the launch of lorcaserin since 2010, when they obviously thought approval was imminent.

      Here; read this:

      “Eisai's Presence in the Americas
      Aiming to enter the world's top 20 largest pharmaceutical markets, one of the objectives stipulated in its mid-term strategic plan “HAYABUSA,” Eisai manages its operations in new markets under an organizational structure comprising four regions: East Asia (Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), the Americas (North, Central and South America), EMEA (Europe/the Middle East/Africa), and Indo-Pacific (South Asia, ASEAN countries, and Oceania).

      In the Americas region, Eisai has already established pharmaceutical sales subsidiaries in Canada (April 2010), Brazil (April 2011) and Mexico (August 2011). In Canada, Eisai has commenced sales of the antiepileptic agent Banzel as well as the chemotherapeutic implant Gliadel Wafer for the treatment of certain malignant brain tumors and the anticancer agent Halaven.”

      Remember, Arena will penetrate and gain instantaneous market share, rather than expending enormous time and resources trying to optimize and expedite an “in-house” marketing campaign and launch of Belviq. It makes added sense to let a top 20 pharma company like Eisai take the lead, initially, while Arena focuses on the big, global picture. If anything, they can learn from Eisai for future launches in new territories and/or NDAs (BelPhen?). Look at some of these other biotech’s (I’ll spare you the names) that tried to launch alone. How did that work out for them?

      We are a great company with so much potential. Anyone betting that we are going to hang around the $9 range for very long, better think again, in my opinion. This is a valuable company that will end up proving the cynics wrong -- again.

      My advice: Just be patient and don’t worry so much about the daily fluctuations of the stock price. The next leg up will come with time.

    • it's just the shorts moving it down taking out stop losses...only 10 mil shares today..we'll get somw buying to move it up ..they may keep doing it til some good news comes..thing is you never know when the good news is coming

    • All these numbers are purely off of memory so dont hold me to the fire, but it is a really good starting point. Take the companies estimated maket penetration, in ARNA case it was 1.5Bln + current market cap of ARNA. Minus the cut for Easi about 35%. Take the number and divide it by the total numbers of shares outstanding, then minus the total debt. I just redid my numbers and came to about 10. Its a really good starting point for new companies. I read this strategy in a book, and good luck finding anyone that will give CURRENT STANDING MARKET SHARE EVALUATION. I found this formula in the book "How to make money in stocks" by Bill O'Neill. Futures promised are built on today. I gather all finacial info from Google and verify it on my trading platform.

    • don't hold your breath. He's a con artist.

    • Is it possible to share with us how you reach the valuation of $9.5 PPS of ARNA. I want to learn how to value biotech companies like ARNA but find it is very difficult to do. Thanks

    • Did you ever consider that maybe the stock is fairly values at today's level and not always a conspiracy that is working against you when you have misjudged a situation?

      It happens to all of us.

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