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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • johnnyola_1 johnnyola_1 Aug 30, 2012 2:11 PM Flag

    Statistical facts about Belviq:

    if 3 prescriptions per primary doctor (in 2009 there was 352 k primary docs in america),

    our price goes to $30 if 10 times earnings.

    1 million rx's
    x 547 (arnas take per rx per year)($4 wholesale per day,*.375*365)
    = 547 million income.

    current market cap = 1.7 b
    at 10 times earnings our market cap would be 5.47 billion.
    at 20 times earnings our market cap would be 10.94 billion.

    10x = 3.17 times more price
    20 times = 6.24 times more price
    current price per share = 7.80
    price per share at 10x= 24.72
    price per share at 20x= 49.44

    *that is with no fwd earnings growth built in.
    *alot of drug co's are at 30 times earnings.
    *plus wholesale cost of drug is $4 per day, and it may be
    more, but probably not less at 2 pills per day.

    Within a year of launch we will be selling probably 3 to 4 million prescriptions per user year. Maybe even up to 10 million.
    remember, doctors want safety first, and this drug offers a safe weight loss. Not everyone responds but the responders lost and average of 8.2 % and that is about the same as vvus's approved dosage in the mid range.

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