if 3 prescriptions per primary doctor (in 2009 there was 352 k primary docs in america),
our price goes to $30 if 10 times earnings.
1 million rx's
x 547 (arnas take per rx per year)($4 wholesale per day,*.375*365)
= 547 million income.
current market cap = 1.7 b
at 10 times earnings our market cap would be 5.47 billion.
at 20 times earnings our market cap would be 10.94 billion.
10x = 3.17 times more price
20 times = 6.24 times more price
current price per share = 7.80
price per share at 10x= 24.72
price per share at 20x= 49.44
*that is with no fwd earnings growth built in.
*alot of drug co's are at 30 times earnings.
*plus wholesale cost of drug is $4 per day, and it may be
more, but probably not less at 2 pills per day.
Within a year of launch we will be selling probably 3 to 4 million prescriptions per user year. Maybe even up to 10 million.
remember, doctors want safety first, and this drug offers a safe weight loss. Not everyone responds but the responders lost and average of 8.2 % and that is about the same as vvus's approved dosage in the mid range.