If 3 rx per primary doc, we are over 50.
if 30 rx per doc, we are over 300
which do you think is more probable?
I think the latter.
350k primary care physicians in america
that is about 1000 patients per doctor.
$575 per patient per year is approximately arna's take
350k x3x575= 603,750,000 at 20 times earnings that would be 12 billion market cap (6 times current share price) so 54 per share. 20 times earnings is very common for a growing company, maybe even 30 times earnings.
NOW IMAGINE IF WE HAD 30 RX per doc in usa? and that is just the usa.
Are you suggesting every person in the US has a physician? I employ 7 people, five of them haven't seen a physician in years and none of us are obese .... We are a very small sample ... But a small flaw in your assumptions, maybe?
Yes 30x earnings is likely while Arena is growing top & bottom line #'s 30% / year and growing its pipeline and until they reach a patent cliff after 2025 at the earliest.
Sentiment: Strong Buy