Does ARNA have a weight loss drug that actually works?
Survey say's................No, not really, at least not very well.
3.3% Placebo adjust weight loss in 52 weeks. P U
per the Belviq label, lose 5% in 12 weeks, or you're OUT. PER The trail data, this means every 12 weeks, somewhere between 53-75% will get their belcebo walking papers.
1000 new scripts in June, in September a 470-750 will fail to meet criteria for continued use. Bye Bye Belcebo, HELLO QSYMIA!
FDA say's, lose 5% of your baseline weight in 12 weeks. If not, no need to continue use of Belcebo, as it's unlikely any meaningful weight loss will be achieved.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
can you remind us of the $200+ million that VVUS must shell out for ACQLAIM?
let me do the honors:
Per the VVUS 10Q dated 6-Nov-2012:
"We anticipate that our research and development expenses for the remainder of 2012 will increase significantly as compared to 2011 as we continue the planning phase of a post-approval cardiovascular outcomes study for Qsymia, known as ACQLAIM. The details of ACQLAIM have not yet been agreed with the FDA. This study could cost between $200 and $250 million and take as long as five to six years to complete..."
The real sense gives van the beatdown. Sense, that is a very complete explanation of why Belviq is going to destroy Q in the marketplace. The only things I would add would be the following: 1. Belviq will get prescribed to diabetics and prediabetics due to its ability to decrease blood sugar independently of the weight loss. 2. Belviq will sell in the EU, Q will not. 3. Belviq is safer...and at doses likely to be prescribed Belviq causes as much weight loss as Q.
do you think it's a good idea for VVUS to farm out all of it's salesforce? IMO, it seems like contract employees are not as committed as Full Timers....that's just my opinion.
what are your thoughts?
by the way, Eisai has 10,000+ Full Time employees. I'm sure many of them can be committed at any time to the marketing/sales of Belviq.
what about the $2 million from Ildong???
per the ARNA 8k:
In addition, Ildong has agreed to pay us a $2 million.....
and all the other potential suitors for ARNA?
how about VVUS, how many companies are willing to invest REAL dollars into Qsymia? NONE!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
can VVUS advertise Qsymia?
why did VVUS do a 'soft launch'?
why is VVUS giving away Qsymia for free for the first two weeks?
why is a major VVUS shareholder asking for Management to sell the company? Don't they like the management team's progress?
can Qsymia be found at any retailers stores?
why is Qsymia only available via Mail?
it's me again....please remind us how many insiders sold shares this year?
Nasdaq shows us that Insiders sold 2,024,572 shares in 2012.
My rough estimate is about $40 MILLION worth of shares were sold by VVUS Insiders in less than one year.
Well . . . lets not forget that our South Korean partner's payment was $5M. Now lets speculate about the ROW partner and what their milestone payment might be - guessing larger than Eisai's. So I don't think we are talking about a one time event. Sorry, it's probably the word 'partner' that is so confusing and foreign to a VVUS groupie.
Well . . . since last quarter VVUS produced $2 million in revenue with $53M in expenses. If I multiple that by 4 quarters it would equal $8M revenue for the year. That means Eisai's $65M milestone payment would be worth 8 years of VVUS revenues at the current rate. However, now they have cut their price in half, so they have to double sales to equal their last quarter. Wonder how that is working for them? Ouch!