I think I have made my point: This is a dangerous stock to have most of your money tied up in. If a 20% drop over the past month doesn't convince you of that, I don't think that much else will. If European approval suddenly materialized, this stock might pop. In the absence of that event, I think it will drift down to the 7.66 level until such time as ARNA proves that they can do a better job with their launch than VVUS did. Besides, those of you who say I spend too much time on this board for a person with no interest in the stock are right. But the sorry fact is, as private_wealth also confessed the other day, I enjoy the banter. And most of these Yahoo! message boards are dead. I own stocks which have doubled or tripled over the past year where months go by without a single message. I have to find another hobby. So, farewell. You won't have the old bear to kick around anymore. And for those of you who have your hopes pinned on this stock, I sincerely hope it works out for you. Now let's see those thumbs ups.
It is easy to leave when the stock is down on an " I told you so" right before the events happen t boost the PPS. So when you are gone and PPS goes up you are not around to take the beating you know you will get. Its cool take your ball and go home.
I respectfully disagree with both Iago and Bear; there is a little sell off in the markets today due to the uncertainty of the Cypriot bailout conditions. Its my contention Cyprus will reject the offer coming from Europe and Russia will come to recue mainly due to the fact the Russian Oligarchs have to much to loose.
The MMs used this opportunity today as an excuse to rattle Arena shareholders we were trading at $8.70 on pending news so why are we down 12% on no news a week later 4% today as I write. The simple reason this stock is totally manipulated by fraudsters. It’s ludicrous to suggest that those that own the stock have too much of it and equally bizarre to suggest most of them are on margin while in actual fact it is very difficult to buy the stock on margin. The delay in relation to the DEA is due to one comment only all the rest are irrelevant
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good call, but even you were a bit off. for we're now 10 cents below your bottom #. -----I think it will drift down to the 7.66 level until such time as ARNA-----
I couldn't resist pointing out that I predicted the drift down to these levels a month ago. The implosion of the January calls was a watershed event for this stock, as I said it would be. The recent failure to hold the 8.65 - 8.75 level meant that the 9 calls would no longer be salable at a good premium. Therefore, the stock had to retreat to the levels where the 8's would be tempting,which is precisely where it is now. If it fell to 7.50 today, I might even buy some for a trade, because it will surely live here at 7.65-7-85 for a while.
The problem with this stock is that all the people who like it already own it. In most cases, they own too much of it, which was my point all along. In fact, as has been evident recently, many of the longs are on margin. Which is to say that not only do they have all their ready money in the stock -- they also have committed borrowed money.
The DEA announcement has been so widely heralded here that I am of the opinion that it will produce a very small pop (25-50 cents?) followed by a nosedive as all the expectant longs rush to get out even a little ahead. Now that so many are underwater on their positions, the rush to the exits should be even more violent. For those of you who have naively bought the line about "trapped shorts", Institutions and hedge funds trying to "steal" your shares, etc.,I am sorry. All except for red900901. His arrogance and rudeness make him a deserving recipient of this lesson.
I knew you'd be back. It's not unlike Nouriel Roubini predicting the end of the US economy when we were trading at 6600. He's still predicting it and every 5%-10% pullback he proclaims the market has finally seen the wisdom of his words...We are off $1 since you were here last. You've been predicting our demise for months and you continued when we approached $11 from $8 last time with the same logic. Nothing personal bear you just have a poor batting average and not really here to help anyone. Your sympathies are misplaced with me and likely many others. I feel bad for the emotional types that hinge on every daily trade and when we swing up or down panic. I just buy more when we dip and sell some when we spike just like I have been for 18 months. Not sexy but it works.
Bear, I regret having to agree with you, but I do. Although I also think we are seeing simple capitulation and a sell off, as some small and large positions are wound down at a loss. I don't really buy into the argument that this board is a true measure of retail investor sentiment, but over the past week there have been enough angst posts from trapped longs saying they are contemplating a forced exit. There's a message in that. And I know someone outside the board who has been forced into selling a much larger position, to comply with policies over the scale of a loss that can be kept on the books. People on this board see all of this as "manipulation", but that's total ####. For some bizarre psychological reason, many people here want to believe they are victims of corruption. But we who clicked the buy buttons are responsible for our decisions. And the spamming of the FR page is what has caused this latest sell off, which is 100% attributable to the delay in DEA approval. Again, people won't accept that, as they prefer to believe someone else is to blame, like Cramer's granny or AF's baby nephew. Anything but the FR page spammers.
There are some amazingly bizarre attitudes on display in the responses on this thread. I unignored some folks temporarily to read what passes for their thoughts. According to these guys it is wrong and immoral to suggest that there could be any downside risk because it could scare people into selling their stock and losing future profits. But to the same guys it is perfectly moral and right to post many times a day urging other people to buy while ignoring any risk at all. Either both attitudes are morally appropriate, or neither is. There is no black and white here, there are only opinions... Finally, and actually the key point. Anyone who buys or sells a stock because some of what an anonymous pumper or basher on a yahoo MB says is an idiot who deserves to lose his or her money.... So, so what if Bear takes a thoughtful negative perspective? If you do what he suggests SOLELY because of what he says, then more fool you. And if your only reason for buying ARNA is because red90091 says it is going to the moon, then also - more fool you...
What is more likely if Bear is departing is- that he has not spent his lonely life bashing Arena for sport, no he is more likely realizing the error of his ways and closing out his long losing short position coming into the critical end of month - mid march period and finally realizes that the stock is due to run over the coming weeks and so bye bye basher find another hobby and screenname.
Bear, if you do depart, I for one will miss your contributions. As you know, we don't agree with each other on the near term direction of this stock (I believe there will be a substantial pop, maybe a buck or two, upwards in late Feb or early March; you don't). But that's a difference of opinion between people who do actually think and not just base their decisions on hope. I totally get it that you inhabit this board because of the banter and not because you have a malicious agenda. Some people seem to find that hard to believe, but frankly that's their problem. I don't follow your advice, but I do read and respect it. Why your antagonists can't do the same is a sad reflection on the board. i cannot understand why so many ARNA longs just want every other post to agree with them, or be from a paid basher (do they really exist?). At its best, the banter here IS good, and the information exchange is interesting. At its worst, it's the village mob hounding Frankenstein's monster to its death at the hands of their pitchforks. I suppose the "mistake" you make is dueling with people I simply have on ignore (that's not true of ALL those you debate, as some are good, smart posters, but it is the case with a lot of them). Anyway, I think you should stay around and say what you think. It's not a popularity contest, after all; it's a source of information sharing and a place to opine. And you do both.