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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • mario_themario mario_themario Feb 26, 2013 10:50 AM Flag

    VVUS poor business model + AF article

    I will state, I don't like posting on this board as there is way too much pomp pom + bashing that has nothing to do with the company or the industry. That being said.
    VVUS decided to sell Q alone + the analysts, AF included, said it was a good thing as they could be acquired more easily + ARNA made a big mistake because they have to share a large portion of profits with their partner and a buyout would be too difficult. Well, we are now seeing the truth as opposed to the conjecture. VVUS is struggling with their REM's program and a weak sales force that combined have conributed to poor sales, coupled with the inherent safety issues with their product, cleft + etc. Comparing the 2 companies right now is just comparing apples + oranges but it will continue since they both occupy the same space. The reality behind the numbers is where the rubber meets the road.
    VVUS had to resort to "incentives" to drive attention as the sales force was unable to make many inroads early on. ARNA won't have that problem as Eisai has a substantial sales force in place to move the product without a REM's impediment, ala retail pharmacies. The cost means nothng as the copay means everything. All things being equal, the copay will be approx the same as Q so the actual cost has little to do with abandonment due to out of pocket costs to the consumer. Selling expenses for ARNA are basically zero since Eisai will bear those costs so SG&A will be negligible to ARNA. Further study costs are expected to be high at VVUS and the company will more than likely have to issue a secondary to finance as sales income will be slow with costs exceeding rev for the foreseeable future, none of which applies to ARNA since Eisai will again bear that cost. ARNA will be getting a milestone soon of 65MM along with rev's on the sales on B in the next QTR.
    I've said it before in a prior post that ARNA wouldn't hear from the DEA until the full 45 days + it appears I will be right + the pom pom's will be wrong. I also said I agreed with the company not the cheerleaders that the EU decision wouldn't happen until mid year not Jan. I trust the company knows a tad more about the reg environ than others. I also expect sales to be good not great out of the gate + you won't see major PPS appreciation for another year. It will be steady as she goes BUT I fully expect the PPS to increase significantly in 1 to 2 years. This won't be a get rich quick scheme.
    AF is as usual being disingenuous when it comes to ARNA as he is still smarting from his bad call that ARNA wouldn't get FDA approval so he keeps pouinding out the poor articles about ARNA in hopes he will someday be right. VVUS on the call was very vague on their plans for the EU resubmittal and IMO they won't move forward as they won't have the cash to try + move on the FDA reg front + the EU combined. They have all their eggs in the FDA basket to get a modification from the FDA on their REM's in Apr. If they don't, but I expect they will, it would crush the company. Even if they get some modfication they won't see the results as they stated till mid year at the earliest.
    Bottom line, the VVUS call was just plan bad + the company has made too many missteps in rolling out their product + executing the reg environ. None of these issues will plague ARNA and that process will be much smoother. Funny how OREX isn't affected today, I guess their sales will rocket out of the gate. They have takeda as a partner who is now sitting on a big flop with their latest collaboration and could cost them huge bucks.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Anyone who uses the word "disingenuous" properly is intelligent enough to make a reasoned analysis of ARNA. Thank you for that, Mario. What plagues ARNA can be summed up in one word: impatience. Arena hasn't sold the first pill, more than 8 months after approval, and investors are simply impatient. I have danced this dance with Dendreon from 2004 until 2010, through advisory panel approvals and FDA rejections, and through the glorious run from 4.10 to selling at 54.28, and what I can tell you is that if the science and safety are right with Belviq (they very much ARE, as they were with Dendreon's Provenge) and the distribution network is prepared (thank you, Esai, for succeeding where Dendreon would fail), nothing will hold back Arena. With 20K shares, after banking substantial profits, I have something just as valuable as those 20K shares. Like Mario, I have patience.

    • How do you know VVUS has a bad sales force ? Oh, you really dont?

    • I hope you are wrong

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