In my mind, if I wanted to trap shorts I would produce significant news before the market opened and set the stage for a rapid advance forcing them to cover as the price escalates. We don't have a product in the market, so there are no expectations good or bad about the results. Yes, people on the 'other side' will make a big deal out of it, but it means nothing. Remember, their product has been a big disappointment after launch. $50.3 million in expenses and $2 million in revenue. I have no reason to believe, one way or the other, but I am hoping that Jack does deliver some significant news - the timing seems very strange for this event if you were just going to go over your latest numbers and talk about the quarter in review. He could do this anytime during the day and it would have no effect on the market - as well he could have slept in for a couple of extra hours.
I sent Jack a letter three months ago congratulating him and the Arena team on getting this through the FDA process after all these years. As a shareholder, I reminded him of his underdog status through all this and that Wall Street and the media had bet heavily against him then, and is still doing it now. I brought up the Porsche vs. Volkswagen short squeeze which destroyed several hedge funds, and hoped that he would consider a strategy to pay back the forces that have attempted to bring ARNA to its knees. I have no idea how Jack is effected by the pps or the naked short positions, but his goal is to guide this company to commercialization first and foremost. Going to be interesting how this plays out next week - ball is in your court Jack, and down deep inside I hope you have one vindictive bone in your body. JMO
A lot of food for thought on this thread, a bear raid in itself wouldn’t be so bad if you didn’t have stops in place and will be quite painful for those have. A decent bear raid on the other hand courtesy of the HF would represent a phenomenal buying opportunity for others. In my opinion there’s a little something in this for everybody…….hmmmm going to be an interesting week.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
HUCK WHERE ARE U THAT YOU ARE UP SO EARLY ON A SUNDAY MORN.TIME ZONE..sorry for caps.Or is it just tomm is a big day for arna.I have no skin in the game. got in once or twice and watched it go down INSTANTLY then when i got even and out it moved up hihger..Timing is everything.Hope for you and horsecrazy things work out. I am leery based on the market cap,consumer cost of the drug, and vvus disaster last week.But of course if europe works out then it may be more interesting.Funny how arna and dvax both released friday ah.For arna i will go with what a poster said here that they did not want it to interfere as much with monday.I am aware vvus now is mail order and arna will be avail at pharmacys.
jdolby I expect nothing earth shattering as ARNA get's to earn every fn penny up and that #$%$ me off. Why? Beacuse VVUS sold a bs stoty and the idiot retail folks over there rode the elevator up and then down again on bs. We will get our due unfortunately in a year or two . So for all the latecomers stop complaining about owning this stock from sometime in 2012 as many have been hear for four years or better.
Early good morning...... Vivus is a bs story with no real reason to exist as an independent
entity. It clearly was developed as a buyout target, that at best would be modest price enhancing
asset for its new owner. They don't really have anything to sell except maybe Stendra which is
legit. Not $30-$35 dollars pps legit, but more like the $10.00 its at now. It was a legit attempt to
make money.... spun out of control by WS pumpers in collusion with people who know how to
get cash out of main street.
jdolby. ARNA at times found itself balancing a lot of balls in the air previous as it climbed hurdles some artificially presented to get to this point. Their precarious risky position has now diminished considerably. Esai has a lot riding on this and has escorted this Pretty Lady to the dance in fine fashion. There is no hurry now as they as they begin this phase of roll out and the fan fare that will surround it. Criminal minds always think about criminal thoughts of manipulation and deception in order to make money DNDN being an example. In this case the breadth and width of the ARNA approach covering all the bases and creating as much as possible bullet proof path will in the future be the example for others to follow. They have very smart people tuned into the market and are really not in the business of creating enemies. On the same note a premarket news release is the worst case scenario for an overcooked short position. Again that DNDN chart comes to mind as that Spike and Dip and Spike were incredible and left many out as the lift dip and lift caught many by surprise as they could not execute as many froze and just watched. Good luck to all.
Camper - I was in DNDN when the flash crash happened and I was completely blindsided and could not figure out for the life of me what had just happened. Thankfully, my trigger finger froze as I was more worried about stopping my knees from shaking and my chest from pounding. 2 1/2 mins. to drop the stock in half and have a 'halt' issued. I literally sat starring at my computer for an hour in disbelief. Fortunately for me I did not have stops set or could I sell in that timeframe - so I rode it down and could only wait to see what happened. Next morning it opened almost back to where it was before the crash and continued upward. I got out with a profit later and was thankful. Others who had stops were wiped out literally in a flash and those that needed their money to clear had to wait 3 days before getting back in at a higher price. The SEC and Nasdaq, after investigating, found no wrong doing by the two HF's who executed this bear raid. There was actually a post on the message board at 12:30p that predicted this was going to take place. Must have been an insider who felt some form of guilt for destroying investors. This raid was executed perfectly before the approval from the FDA happened.
I AGREE with your sentiment but i dont think any groundbreaking news w/b forthcoming on monday.
the approach here is simple; let belviq go thru its commercial launch and as a long,,,, i have conviction this product will be very successful............ weight, prediabetis, blood pressure,,, etc..... to many disciplines within medicine will find usefulness of belviq and write scripts. i have conviction this w/b blockbuster status.
to mull over week to week price action is waste of time , imo,,,,,,,,.; this is a hold throughout 2013 december 31st at the very least. we are in possession of a multi bagger here. im buying on notable dips. i dont expect wolters klewer data after first four or 8 weeks to be highly significant ,,, by the way.
Agree no groundbreaking news to come out on CC monday before market. I think Jack knows groundbreaking news is coming next week and wants to have a noneventful CC behind him. It would be dificult to have a normal CC right after approval is granted. Analysts would be demanding projected sales figures, profitibility projections, and a thousand other items of importance. I think get the CC out of the way Before DEA clears Belviq for sales... Then you have 3 months to sort out the results. jmo
One thing is when one thinks ws will do one thing they do the other...The 10q was no big deal, they lost more because of the 65 mil not on the books..JL said that would happen if dea did not schedule in q4, so monies will be on the q1 call..The moving up of the cc two weeks and before the bell has never been done so why do it now? also the launch meeting in florida by Eisai..Anyways its not in arna court its in eisai court...Any sales projections must come from Eisai and will not come from arna..We are just along for the ride, which should be a good one