I was one of the few who was right back in January!
I know I'm tooting my own horn a little here, but the fact of that matter is, I was. Most everybody here at that time was believing CHMP would happen that month. Even Tiger thought so, and he's been extremely diligent and helpful in clarifying the process for people all along. Now I'm telling you that this has a very good chance of being ruled on now. My guidance is the same exact guidance that I used back in January to determine that it wasn't likely to happen that month. That guidance is the words of CEO Jack himself. In a presentation to JP Morgan in early January Jack specifically stated that he expected an EMA decision during the first half. Everybody at that time seemed to believe CHMP would happen during that month, but it was obvious to me that if CHMP happened in January the EMA rubber stamp would happen well before the second quarter (ie first half rather than first quarter), and therefore there had to be some type of a delay in the works. Using that same guidance, I now reason CHMP for Belviq is almost certain to occur either now or next month. I give about a 45 percent chance that it happens now, and a 45% chance for May. If it were to occur any later than that there is no way the the EMA would make its final decision during the first half. It's as simple as that really. So unless there has been a hold up in Jack's projected response time to the EMA, which I doubt, this should happen in the very near future. I also like its odds of being approved. There was a stat up the other day the something like 25 of the last 27 drug candidates who received a delay have gone on to be approved. Incidentally, Vivus was given no such treatment, and was simply shot down. That was due to be expected however due to the toperamate in its product, which has been explicitly banned in Europe for a long time now. I wish i had had some spare money back then, as I would have made a hell of a profit on a put option at that time
But yeah, it's as simple as that really. Your best source of guidance is right straight from the horses mouth, that being Jack himself. In order for final EMA decision to be made during the first half, CHMP HAS to occur either this month or next. And for that matter, next month would be cutting it close.
One last observation I'll give. The price on this stock was as high as $11 dollars back in January (compared to where it is now), immediately prior to January CHMP and BEFORE there was all this doubt cast on whether or not it would be approved. That should give some idea as to how high this is likely to climb after it does receive approval. I tend to lean towards it being approved.