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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • lawyersview lawyersview May 14, 2013 9:07 PM Flag

    Short Squeeze Possibility?? Change in sentiment is key, not so much a magic number on sales.

    Here are the factors/indicators I am looking at:
    1. In general a rising stock market has been handing short sellers massive losses;
    2. Days to cover 15.4 days. Anything higher than 7 days is red flag for shorts. High short-interest ratios are often more susceptible to a squeeze.
    3. Shares short 59 million.
    4. In excess of 40% in carrying costs for shorting;
    5. No price decline in Arena stock as bet by shorts;
    6. Institutional buying numbers tomorrow out 5/15/13
    7. Some longs refuse to allow their shares to be borrowed;
    8. Short squeezes occur more often with small cap stocks;
    9. Theoretical fear of unlimited losses;
    10. Short squeezes often occur because of a news event that changes investors’ perception as to the worth of a particular company;
    11. A short squeeze can also be created by long holders of the stock attempting to push the price higher, in an attempt to tap into the emotional buying that a trapped short seller can provide;
    12. Rise in percentage of new short positions since 7/13 to present, using three month intervals:
    7/13 to 10/15=8.5% increase
    10/15 to 1/15=12% increase
    1/15 to 4/15=16% increase
    4/15 to 4/30=5% decrease
    *****The decrease occurred in 1 reporting period. The shorts are trying to get out in some controlled fashion.
    *****They shorted more going into EU evaluation after the 180 List of outstanding issues
    13. No down trend in Arena stock for shorts to be confident of any price decline. In fact, its been pretty flat for the past;
    14. Most Arena short position are losing money in the stock because we can approximate the price the short position was initiated. I am approximating based upon changes in the size of the short position over time. By understanding how much the short sellers are losing we can monitor the stock for signs they may becoming urgent in their buying. Keep an eye on change in price trend turning up;
    15. Conditions for a short squeeze will increase with price mo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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