I've been watching this stock but I can't get myself to pull the trigger on it because I guess my concern is I don't really get the value of this drug.
First it only works on the high end of the obesity scale, isn't that effective, and costs a lot. It reduces weight at a rate of 3%. Thats 6lbs for a 200lb man, and it costs $200 a month and requries diet and excercise to work. There are a few issues with this. First is that diet and exercise alone with reduce your weight by 3% or more, and no additional cost, with no additional risk. Second is that some on the high end of the obesity scale, are depressed, unmotivated and financially not well off, all of which contribute to the problem, that cause them to need the drug in the first place. Some who are overweight simply can't afford to eat the right food and exercise, for them its a luxury not a choice or a genetic predisposition. And that $200 a month (only 30% of insurance will cover this at launch) can go towards those things. Now it makes those things even harder.
The second issue is motivation. The success of this drug depends on working out and eating right. Something, that many of these people are already not doing. Its not like this drug motivates people to do those things. It seems like it would have more value if it did. So even if the drug works, it can fail, not because of what the drug isn't doing but because of what the patient isn't doing. Which seems like a setup for failure to me. And btw, these patients are already guilty of not dieting and working out. The already know they need to do this, and how effective it can be, regardless of the existance and effectiveness of this drug.
So in short I can't really see the value in it. And that's whats preventing me from diving in. The effort needed for it to work properly, is a big ask that already isn't happening. And the effort alone would achive the same results without the cost or the side effects. All that and $200 a month to shave off only 10lbs!?
You're a JOKE. Why are you even considering it if you a such a low opinion of the main product that Arena just started selling. You can read articles on SA or read through material presented in this message boards,. So like the man said below Don't Buy this worthless company. Find a sure thing that you can invest in. If you were in earnest in trying to decide you would have presented good and bad points. Only conclusion is someone who has an agenda to spread FUD.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
you are aware of what watching means right. and no i did not make my yahoo id today. i posted for the first time today.
finally even though you don't believe me. I'm infact just a guy interested in the stock, posting to get some more insight which is btw the point of a message board. sharing information. but i will no post here again and just read. because the world isn't divided in to two camps, those that are with you and those that are against you, i'm really just trying to get info and reasonably raising legit concerns. but some of the stuff you guys have posted literally makes me think you are insane. snowjustin believes that i'm someone else, and posts this like its a fact based on nothing btw other than what is in his own head. shareholder called me a short based on the same reason. the only mistake i made was believing that i was talking to reasonable adults...
Eisai Pharma sees something that you are missing. They have already sent Arena a check for 65 million plus another check earlier for FDA approval (please correct me if I am wrong on that). Eisai has also agreed to market Belviq on their own dime, buy the product from Arena's factory, foot the bill for additional research, give Arena another big check when sales milestones are reached, dedicate 200 salespeople to Belviq, dedicate about 50 to educating insurance companies and helping them down the road of accepting it under coverage.
As for the efficacy, you can throw out ALL placebo adjusted numbers now. Efficacy has been proven and the real world does not give a rat's patootie about placebo adjustments. It is NOW ALL ABOUT RAW, ACTUAL WEIGHT LOSS.
On that count, the trials showed these three thing to be absolutely true...
1. The average user of Belviq lost about 8% of their body weight - not 3%. Their 'bathroom scales' experience was a loss of a little better than 8%.
2. The 'responders' subset (roughly 40% of all participants) lost 11.2% of their body weight. That is their actual weight loss and what roughly 40% of Belviq users will experience in the REAL WORLD.
3. In the BLOSSOM trial, the top quartile (25%) of those that completed one year of treatment and did what they were told lost... 16.3%.
No group involved lost only 3% unless you cherry pick the non-responders for the worst of the lot.
One other thing that you need to know. Belviq helped diabetics BEFORE THEY EVEN LOST WEIGHT. In fact, lorcaserin may be as effective in treating type II diabetes as many first line diabetic pills with the ADDITIONAL benefit of helping them lose weight.
Finally, there is either a lot you are missing or there is a lot you are ignoring. Hard to tell.
I will be surprised sp500 if this is not flagged. I will make a copy of this and repost of that happens. Thank you for compressing this info in a very legible approach. It is a homerun. Thanks
In spite of all the pumping and hoping, the only thing you have to consider is whether you believe that this drug will sell. If it sells, Arna could be a home run even though they have to share the profits with others. Wall Street is obviously dubious or else the stock would be much higher. Bottom line.....drug sells and you make money. Drug doesn't sell and you lose money. Place your bets. cheers
Ok well the whole point of the post is to see the other side of the story. So if you have something to share then by all means convince me. I'm not close minded. But at least write something of substance, rather than reacting like an 8 year old. I'm not personally attacking you. I'm creating a debate.