These guys are huge bears. Looking at their net sales numbers of 190K scripts, earning 15MM yields $78/script?
Belviq Trends Continue With TRx of 2222
■ The latest IMS data - through June 28th
- puts Belviq TRx at 2,222. This
equates to a 21% growth rate over the prior week’s 1,829. IMS data also
implies only around 30% of TRx are a paid script (based on the total pill
count), in line with last week. With this third week, we now have data for the
final week of Q2 and a growth rate as we head into Q3. Whereas there might
have been some debate around last week’s number (e.g. on how to account
for the growth vs week 1, a partial week), to us, a picture of Q3 is becoming
clearer. Meeting Q3 consensus of $15m is looking to be an uphill battle
(assuming IMS’ data is reasonably accurate).
■ As we’ve said before, Q2 sales, which will be reported in the coming
weeks are not relevant. We have $15M for Q2 net sales, though this is not
an estimate of patient demand. Rather, sales will be booked using the sell-in
revenue recognition methodology, which recognizes revenues at the
time of sale to wholesalers. Thus, Q2 sales is likely mostly stocking.
■ As we look to Q3, we think Belviq will need to do at least around
190,000 TRx for the quarter or around 15,000/week - and this assumes
the portion of paid scripts (30% now) also meaningfully increases.
Hitting the 15,000 number would require an average sustained growth rate --
every week, regardless of holidays or any other such events -- above this
past week’s 21%. And put another way, VVUS’ Qsymia did 3,250/week in its
final weeks of Q4 and then posted $4M in revenues in Q1; Belviq enters Q3
below that 3,250/week trend.
retail longs on this mb KNOW WE HOLE A GEMSTONE DRUG WITH GREAT REVENUE GROWTH POTENTIAL..........JUST IN USA ALONE..........not even counting ex/usa nor expansion of the belviq drug itself by crafting add on compounds........ LONGS WHO DO NOT SELL WILL REALIZE MULTIBAGGER PROFITS. the nitwits at creditsuisse make nitwit arguments w/r to belviq. CS SHOULD EFF...////OFF
Now looking at their call on VVUS, which they downgraded from outperform with a target of 15?!?!? These guys are something. Looking at their numbers for Q which will be dwarfed by B if ARNA hits their numbers + they have a $5 target for ARNA??? That's sayiong they value VVUS with a market cap of 1.5BB + ARNA with a cap of 1BB. VVUS has a load of debt, ARNA none, Q has a zero pipeline + ARNA's is robust. They also don't see a buyout for VVUS.
Conspicuously absent from VVUS’ proxy fight retort is Q2 prescription data.
VVUS reported Qsymia TRx (IMS has not historically accurately captured Qsymia due
to the mail order channels) of 16,733 for January, 18,417 for February and 23,812 for
March. The March month represents a growth of 29% over February. Our sense is that
if Q2 TRx growth was consistent with that of March, management would have been
inclined to release at least some monthly data for Q2. If we assume a $65 ASP (down
from $70 last quarter) and 15% month/month growth through all of Q2, we arrive at
around $6M for Q2, vs our published $7M and consensus of $8M. In the context of new
governance changes, this probably is not a big deal. But at the same time, it’s also
difficult to see VVUS stock rising on the back of Q2 Qsymia performance either.
■ Valuation: Our $15 target price on VVUS is DCF-derived and unchanged. We are not
changing forecasts at this time; however, we are downgrading to Neutral as VVUS
approaches what we see as its fundamental value
So what are these analyst saying:
VVUS hits 6K scripts per week after basically 11 months, but ARNA must get to 15K scripts per week in 4 months? They may actually do it, but why is discrepency in expectations. because the ARNA attack dogs are still getting it on. Trying to set expectations to high to continue to attack it!
Meanwhile VVUS is bleeding cash like multi-cut pig with debt and instiutional takeover issues and ARNA is debt free with a bundle of cash and a pipeline to boot?
CS need to take a big jump off Michigans Mackinaw bridge---right at the highest point!! Splat right onto the top of an iron ore carrier!
Sentiment: Strong Buy