The key to long term success in investing is to balance confidence with ability to recognize if facts are consistent with the original investment thesis. It is critically important not to let psychological factors interfere with economic rationality in investment decision making.
My original thesis is playing out:
1. Population is getting fatter, not skinnier
2. Obesity has been accepted by med profession as a disease.
3. Market opp is increasing daily..see #1...BIllions
4. BELVIQ WORKS! Listen to testimonials.
5. Benign side effect profile..Listen to testimonials.
6. Scripts are growing
7. Dr education growing
8. Patient Awareness growing..see 9
9. DTC advertising kicking off.
10. Sales staff will be growing by year end
11. Few competitors with high barriers to entry.
12. Key Product Differentiation...see #5 & 13.
13. Improved co-morbidities
14. Low COGS
Note: Please review the words "long term" in 1st paragraph...
1.) 14 million in milestone next
2.) global sales coming this 1/4..
4.)Belviq for smokers
5.) Belviq deals (like Tiawan in other countries)
6.)Temanogrel 1st milestone this 1/4 2 million
7) Temanogrel 30 billion dollar market.. 10% of market=blockbuster
8)Deal with other large Pharma on AD811 or Temanogrel both in Phase 2 .. phase2 called sweet spot for investing in Pharma for investors and deals!! example Beviq deal 100 million in the last 1.5 years
9.) the additional study data for Europe approval and Swiss..
10)S Korea approval for Belviq testing conculds next month 3 million milestone and stocking this 1/4
You are right on!!!
In addition to your points, I also see following as differentiating factors too...
ARNA/BELVIQ has multiple partners unlike others. EISAI started its belief in BELVIQ in 2010 or before and started to invest in millions. EISAI and other partners are experienced, possess resources and expertise unlike WS Thugs...
15. Increasing insurance coverage
As scripts grow, my bank account grows.....which will lead to BP buyout....ARNA will cease to exist as stand alone...Jack is close to 70
Emba. The big game hunter
The FDA approved Belviq for a reason......Obesity is a major epidemic, a major cost to our medical system. Belviq is a major tool to solve these issues for obese patients. Cost, health plan coverage, doctor education, market acceptance, patient response, script growth, world market expansion, all are on track. Remember the delay for scheduling approval.....convinced it was done for hedges to cover now that's it's passed. Know what you own could never be more of a true investor decision of risk vs. reward. Firm holding long.
Good points. The entie American Population is under Psychological Attack. We cant trust anyone in Our Government to tell us the truth. That is a big problem and will only lead to bigger ones. America needs a Leader and fast. Not a Fascist Dictator wannabe who doesnt even use his real name.
The word is we have 2 companies(ARENA, EISAI) sitting there never commenting on anything that is written about BELVIQ, such as the hatchet job COWEN just did about Belviq's safety yet not one word about VIVUS SAFETY CONCERNS! They continue to allow the share price to get raped! ONCE AGAIN IF EISAI COMES IN WITH A LOWBALL TAKEOUT PRICE THERE WILL NEED TO BE A SHAREHOLDER CLASS ACTION LAWSUIT!!!!
The fact of the matter is that Q has been out 10 months and Belviq, 5, with NO rush to emergency rooms seen by either set of patients, while the obese keep on making their usual visits for heart attacks etc and experience longer hospital stays and greater maternity risks than the non-obese..
If Vivus is going up, Arena will most likely eventually follow. That's pretty likely due to
**sharing the same category (weight-loss) but serving different patients (those who fail at one drug use the other),
**having the same BIG competitor ("diet& exercise only" is over-recommended; obviously is not working given the 30% obesity rate in the US) and
** facing the same myth (drugs to fight obesity are more dangerous than obesity).
Put both GM & F on the same medium-term graph to see what I mean. You'd never know GM was the one that did bankruptcy.
JB, Shaggy's mom
To the ARNA board--embawaves has a good long-term viewpoint, but also be sure to listen to BearofBleecker when he talks about timing. Bleecker always beat the computer robots by a least a dime when picking "dip-buy" points for ford/f.
Timing? This time?? Vivus's very big upward move on analyst reports Mon & Tues, on news of patents extended, from 2020, out to 2028, is pulling Arena along, much as seen with Ford and GM. Since VVUS is the leader, its move upward is the larger. Other times?? Maybe Arena can be the leader and return the favor
IMPORTANT. Be aware that, long-term, Belviq and Qsymia are "twins joined at the hip" on stock & product direction. Both stole market share from the leading generic (phenteramine) when numbers on that were shown this summer . Both are far more effective than the 'placebo' used in FDA studies. Placebo? A sugar pill accompanied by the usual diet & exercise counseling from a doctor. The "diet&exercise only" option that purists keep promoting?? Many doctors don't yet understand how ineffective that is.
Using numbers from memory (check archives at FDA.gov if needed) the FDA placebo was only 24% effective for the kind of patients for whom Belviq is designed. Diet-and-exercise were only 19% effective for the kind of patients for whom Qsymia is designed. Adding a drug to control hunger?? That DOUBLED to TRIPLED the percentage seeing at least 5% weigh loss, depending on the drug
BOTH scripts will keep going up. That's true, despite too many doctors ignoring the fact that the LARGE risks of obesity overwhelm the MUCH SMALLER risks of qualified doctors prescribing the drugs. As the AMA and conferences and visits to MD offices by sales forces help to dispel myths, scripts should grow even faster.
BEWARE. In the meantime, while longs wait for another jump in scripts, shorts can, off-and-on take, big bites out of price.
JB, from the Vivus board