Re: Credit Suisse: Masters of deception & misrepresentation
Credit Suisse assumes Arena will make no money past 2020. They assume in 7 years Arena will generate $600 million + the $250 million current cash on hand = $3.89 PPS for cash value = $4 target. No value for pipeline. No value for patents. No multiplier. No earnings after 2020. No patent extensions. No other indications. No sales in other countries after 2020.
Not to mention their other outright errors. Their Belviq earnings were off by 100% for Q3 yet they feel they nailed it. "ARNA reported revenues of $3.6M, in-line with our $3.1M." They got lucky with the 3.1M because they put a extra 1M milestone payment in for the quarter
Also no addressing their call of financing being needed. Just sweep that under the rug.
I hope you are correct, but think your time frame is a little short sighted.......the options contracts have to adjust over the next 18 days to the new trade dynamic. This takes alot more trading cycles for these boozos to set in place. The end of January after 2013 earnings release, new country applications become news, and script counts jump on DTC advertising results. The $5 options on both sides need to get past ex dates in my opinion. Either way, ARNA will rock on........going up two steps up and one step back, I've watched it trade four years under option control ranges.