The settlement day for short interest was 6-30. The new numbers will be released on 7-10. From what the preliminary volume numbers indicate, the short interest looks like it will rise from 42 million shares short to 46+ million shares short. This tells me that the latest drop in the stock was from more short selling and not stock fundamentals. What other information this provides is that if the 46 million number is correct, it just adds to the problem the short sellers have. They must purchase 46 million shares at a time of a relaunch,more prescription coverage,more sales personnel, Belphen, and smoking cessation studies. All in all, the shorts will have a tough time finding 46 million shares for sale if good news hits the wire.
As far as the last few days and the stock dropping, it could be window dressing for some fund managers that may have lightened up on Arena. I expect a rally now that we are into the 3rd quarter
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Very nice summary. It is a very risky time to be short for many reasons, most of which all know. An interesting wild card catalyst may be emerging from researching institutions such as Pfizer and that is about the benefits of lorcaserin for the treatment of schizoprenia. Thus far the information is preliminary, however the initial experimentation has revealed positive results. The indication for usage for this illness is important because this mental disorder requires constant and probable life-long medication and many other of the current meds for treatment have unpleasant side-effects that lorcrasein does not have,
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I suspect a lot of rebalancing going on in some of the funds and ETFs. PBE reduced their holdings in ARNA slightly....was 1,521,754 in June and is now 1,488,028...not a huge change admittedly, but many more funds/etfs were doing the same.
Ya think? right now the only reason nobody is buying this stock is because none of it is for sale. The 4 M shares you see in volume today is more likely 750k shares passed around in a dark pool with HFT stunts
Can you explain to me how you can infer when a order to sell crosses the tape whether or not it was based on stock fundamentals, technicals, a maintenace or margin call, a need for tuition payments, a great deal on an 8-ball,etc. ?
This is very interesting to me ...
The window dressing comment is astute, however, bravo. You do not want to have to report to shareholders sizable holdings in shlt. The dressing usually comes in the form of purchasing a momentuim stock that has risen as opposed to dumping dogs, but both can happen.
Let's hope this works like you think. Some how I still see theses pukes escaping as we have no real surprises for Mr.Leif to spring. Bel phen results are a known in the marketplace and everything else is potential. The time has arrived for put up as we all already have shut up from Eisai.