Today a Canadian miner also listed on the the TSX.V, like Ucore in Canada, released its NI 43-101 and its share price jumped almost 40%. Can never equate stocks but this does suggest what we can look forward to in just days. I am fully loaded with shares and just waiting.
By the way, this was posted on the Canadian Stockhouse board for the parent stock (UCU.V). While these little kids continue to poop in the sandbox here you might want to make that a bookmark.
Reading on RareMetalBlog about CCE's release of their PEA. They are up 37% today on the news.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
PEA Confirms Strong Market Viability for Commerce Resources’ Ashram REE Project
Commerce Resources Corp. (‘Commerce’, CCE.V) has released the results of a NI 43-101 compliant Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Ashram Rare Earth Element, (AREE) from its property in Eldor, Quebec. The PEA has validated Commerce’s enthusiasm for the project and confirmed that the deposit presents four significant advantages which make the Ashram deposit one of the most economically sound REE projects in North America. The deposit is very large – one of the largest in the world and certainly one of the largest outside China; the deposit presents high mineralization grades; the deposit offers ideal distribution featuring the presence of all five critical rare earth elements (REE) which are dysprosium, terbium, europium, neodymium and yttrium at near-surface zone. Moreover, and this especially relevant from an economic viability perspective, the REE’s are hosted in “simple and well-understood mineralogy, being primarily in the mineral monazite and to a lesser extent in bastnaesite and xenotime”.
The presence of monazite is especially welcome, in commercial terms, as it is the most common host for rare earths for which extraction processes are highly developed. Bastnaesite and xenotime have also been processed commercially. The study highlights include a healthy cash flow from a 4,000 ton/day open-pit operation at Ashram with a 25-year mine life, a pre-tax and pre-finance Net Present Value at a 10% discount rate of $2.32 billion according to the evaluation performed by SGS Geostat based on the March 6, 2012 resource estimate. The measured and indicated resource amounts to 29.3 million tons while the inferred resource at an average 1.88% Total Rare Earth Oxides (TREO) is 219.8 million tons. SGS estimated a USD$ 12 .06 billion in revenue over a minimum 25 year mine life with a below average operating cost of USD$ 7.91/kg of rare earth oxide produced.
Producers focusing on the five most critical REEs should be the ones to attract most interest from investors as these are the companies with the ability to address demand from producers of magnets, oil refiners, phosphors, lighting, fuel catalysts and superconductors, which will become ever more important as demand for electric vehicle batteries increases. The fact that the mineralization occurs in well known hosts makes Ashram all the more attractive. Commerce has shown that it meets both conditions; in addition, given that the resource is located in an area formerly used by the logging industry, there is ample infrastructure to support production operations.
In 2012, Commerce intends to continue exploring the property to determine the full extent of the mineralization through further drilling including diamond drilling in the middle and heavy rare
I'll respond to you because at least you are trying to make a cogent, honest bear argument, and I appreciate that.
Like you, I agree that the NPV of the mine is immaterial until they get some financing, and until they strike a few off-load deals. I don't know what the mix of DY is, but at $1,000/kg, they'll have about $907,000/ton of DY to sell. Given that DY is the lowest priced HREE in the mix, even if you assume an average of $1,000,000/ton...you are talking about $13 billion worth of ore over a 20-year period in full mining swing. Admittedly, I might not be looking at this correctly. Additionally, a 20-year NPV on that is going to give you far less than $13 billion in mine value...but $5-$6 billion in NPV in 2016? A relatively nominal amount of annual, on-going operating costs relative to ore value? Assume there is 300 million shares outstanding in 2016? I don't think $10-$20 isn't out of the question for the stock price.
So, what probability do I assign to this? 10%? I'd say the probability here is easily much higher. I'd give this mine better than 50/50 if you pressed me. But at 10% (or 1 in 10 junior HREE miners get up and running)...you are talking about a $1-$2 stock on odds alone.
I'm paying $0.30/share for an indefinite option (really, it's a 3-4 year option), when the option value should probably be more like $1-$2/share RIGHT NOW? I'll take my chances.
Additionally...QRM...AVL...both major competitors with massive mines and similar HREE statistics? DELAYED. QRM doesn't look economic to me in the slightest. AVL does, I admit. That leaves TAS and MAT with true HREE density. MAT...not overly enthused about. TAS...it's a far more attractively valued option, and I own copious amounts of this option bet too.
That's it. Given the supply/demand imbalance that we know currently...DY and TB are the only HREEs worth betting on. I'll take favorable mining districts anytime. TAS and UURAF...BEST BETS.
Not sure things...BETS.
However, the evidence increasingly tilts the odds to UURAF's favor...forget for a minute about a potentially meaningless PEA, we can both agree. They are hiring mine permitting managers...an accredited COO...and have the interest of the US DoD.
If the PEA is $1, I'm still betting this name. A low PEA means they are trying to dumb down the value for a potential acquisition by MCP. A high PEA means this is producing by 2015 given keen interest by the USA.
CRC has only 700 ton of heavy (DY , TB , EU and Y) , which are more rare , critical and costly. Remaining elements are light , which will be in surplus supply once MCP and Lynas becomes online.
Lets see home much HREE Ucore has.
-Ucore has total 5.7 M tone rare deposite as per new cut-off grade.
- Assuming 1% TREO gives 57000 Tones of TREO.
- Ucore has around 40% HREE/TREE ratio which gives around = 22800 Tone of HREE (DY , EU , TB , Y).
Which is almost 29 times of HREE as compared to CRC HREE deposit.
On top of that CRC need 700M initial capital to develop project. I am sure this number will be around 200M for Ucore due to its excellent infrastructure.
With these number any educated person should be able to guess Ucore PPS post PEA announcement.
$2 is written on the wall.