Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Ucore Rare Metals Inc. Message Board

you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the posts
  • the_raven_35 the_raven_35 May 25, 2012 9:19 PM Flag

    Example of impact of NI 43-101 release

    I'll respond to you because at least you are trying to make a cogent, honest bear argument, and I appreciate that.

    Like you, I agree that the NPV of the mine is immaterial until they get some financing, and until they strike a few off-load deals. I don't know what the mix of DY is, but at $1,000/kg, they'll have about $907,000/ton of DY to sell. Given that DY is the lowest priced HREE in the mix, even if you assume an average of $1,000,000/ton...you are talking about $13 billion worth of ore over a 20-year period in full mining swing. Admittedly, I might not be looking at this correctly. Additionally, a 20-year NPV on that is going to give you far less than $13 billion in mine value...but $5-$6 billion in NPV in 2016? A relatively nominal amount of annual, on-going operating costs relative to ore value? Assume there is 300 million shares outstanding in 2016? I don't think $10-$20 isn't out of the question for the stock price.

    So, what probability do I assign to this? 10%? I'd say the probability here is easily much higher. I'd give this mine better than 50/50 if you pressed me. But at 10% (or 1 in 10 junior HREE miners get up and running)...you are talking about a $1-$2 stock on odds alone.

    I'm paying $0.30/share for an indefinite option (really, it's a 3-4 year option), when the option value should probably be more like $1-$2/share RIGHT NOW? I'll take my chances.

    Additionally...QRM...AVL...both major competitors with massive mines and similar HREE statistics? DELAYED. QRM doesn't look economic to me in the slightest. AVL does, I admit. That leaves TAS and MAT with true HREE density. MAT...not overly enthused about. TAS...it's a far more attractively valued option, and I own copious amounts of this option bet too.

    That's it. Given the supply/demand imbalance that we know currently...DY and TB are the only HREEs worth betting on. I'll take favorable mining districts anytime. TAS and UURAF...BEST BETS.

    Not sure things...BETS.

    However, the evidence increasingly tilts the odds to UURAF's favor...forget for a minute about a potentially meaningless PEA, we can both agree. They are hiring mine permitting managers...an accredited COO...and have the interest of the US DoD.

    If the PEA is $1, I'm still betting this name. A low PEA means they are trying to dumb down the value for a potential acquisition by MCP. A high PEA means this is producing by 2015 given keen interest by the USA.

    Regards,

    Raven

 
UURAF
0.2752-0.0148(-5.10%)1:53 PMEDT