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Muscle Pharm Corp. Message Board

  • mtc44380 mtc44380 Jul 12, 2013 2:04 PM Flag

    WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN Q2 earnings

    For everyone concerned about LOW VOLUME - its just not common to see low volume with stocks trading ahead of earnings - there wont be a lot of swings with high volume until there is news on 2Q numbers.
    What to look for in 2Q numbers..... the most important thing at this point is revenues and forward guidance. CASH isn't a big deal (unless they used all 8million this Q, then #$%$ might hit the fan if they aren't profitable), because they are growing and using that cash to expand their business and bring higher profits.
    I am looking for REVs in Q2 to be around 27-28million, a small increase from Q1, but that will re-affirm 105+mil in revs for FY. (I fully expect 110-115mil for FY) I will also be looking at margins, if they are keep 35%, that will be great, 37+ will mean they are actually striving towards increasing profit margins through supply chain.
    Discounts and Cost of sales I will look at too, Buhler said they capped discounts this Q, so I want to see if that is actually true.
    We have about a month to see how the numbers are looking - at that will be the next catalyst. I expect guidance to stay the same until there is more talk of an UPLISTING - they they may raise guidance for FY before 3Q numbers.
    .... There has been talk that MSLP has had financial problems again and I SEE THAT AS HIGHLY UNLIKELY, just haters being haters.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • The main things I am hoping for are:

      1) Continued strong revenue growth;
      2) Clear evidence that last qtr's $2.8M net operating income was legitimate, and that:
      a) Strong, consistent, ongoing profitability is now a given;
      b) The $2.8M figure is a baseline that should - absent a large increase in promotional spending - increase in line with revenue. Ideally, a given percentage increase in revenue should result in a greater percentage increase in profitability, given the focus on controlling / reducing expenses and presumed economies of scale.
      c) Evidence that reported results are not distorted by assumption of weird liabilities - i.e., that they're not reducing current cash outlays by making deals that will result in FUTURE "excluding a $3.4 one-time charge to settle xxxxxx".
      3) A "clean" earnings report - i.e., a complete absence of large "special" charges to "clean up" or "settle" previous arrangements / liabilitities.
      4) Evidence that management is going to treat this as a publicly-traded company for which they have a fiduciary responsibility to act in the interest of shareholders - not as a personal piggy bank. I'm potentially alarmed by the fact that management is giving itself a sixth of the company, on top of salaries, just for working until 2015. If this is a one-time reward for a job well done, fine. Otherwise...

      I have no idea what to expect for revenue. I would be THRILLED with what you describe as a "small" increase to $28M - that would be a 12.5% increase over last Q, which is about 60% annualized. That kind of growth at this point , if accompanied by a commensurate growth in earnings, would give me insane hopes for the future - like 10-bagger-from-here-within-a-couple-of-years hope.

    • I'm a little curious. How does $100 Million+/yr in revenue help this co. if they don't/won't/can't turn a profit?

      • 2 Replies to boxcompany_1
      • Its a 4y/o company, they are using profits to grow, build a product line and a core group of buyers. They WILL turn a profit - you are too pesemistic. You still stink this is a penny stock, and they have come a long way from pre-split.
        They have 8mil in cash to grow the business with to attain profitability.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • It wouldn't if the don't won't can't, but it will because they do, will, can turn a profit. This is a great chance to get in on a young company before if makes its big run. $25+ in one year. The company has assembled a great crew of people to manage the company for growth and we are in the middle of the growth story right now.

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