"FitMiss Delight™ will be available nationwide in all 7,000 Walgreens stores beginning January 2014"
I hope "beginning January 2014" means beginning January 1, 2014".
The nice thing about the number 7,000 is that it is a big number. The nice thing about big numbers is that when you multiply them by other positive integers, the result is an even bigger number.
For example, consider the formula A = B * C * D. These variables COULD represent anything, but imagine that one CHOOSES to define them as follows:
A = "Total Q1 Walgreens Sales"
B = "Number of Walgreens stores"
C = "Walgreens Per-Day, Per-Store Sales"
D = "Number of days in Q1"
The approximate values of B and D are known (7,000 and 91), so the only fun variable to play around with is C (which, of course, directly impacts the value of A).
Let's start by setting C to $1.00 - i.e., each Walgreens store sells, on average, $1.00 worth (based on wholesale prices) of FitMiss product per day. This would obviously represent a pretty poor outcome. Yet, because D is a reasonably large number - and A is a large number indeed - this would increase MSLP Q1 revenue by $637,000. This is not a trivial number, as it represents about 2.25% of Q3 net sales. If things go better, and sales are $3 per-store per-day, we're talking about a pretty-significant $2M increase in sales.
I have no idea exactly which FitMiss Delight product(s) will be available for sale, but let's say it's the roughly $20 1.13 item I found available at Wags online. If there is a 100% markup on this, then Wags pays $10. If one item is sold per-store per-day, then the impact on MSLP sales revenue would be approximately $6.37M.
That, combined will the Arnold line, would lead me to expect Q1 gross sales to come in around $40M. Based on that, what's a reasonable projection for full-year 2014 (given that additional products are supposed to be available at Costco and Walgreens in June)? I think $170M would be very conservative.
Of course, the per-store per-day revenue figure could come in far lower than $10.
But it could also come in higher....
Great write-up fkk - The more products they can get into these stores, the better.
Remember, they also announced that AMINO1 will be sold at COSTCO now, along with COMBAT. So that will add more rev from the Costco side of things.
I think Fitmiss is a sleeping giant. Women love their healthy lifestyle, quick and easy things and Fitmiss can offer that - they just need more publicity and this Walgreens deal will give it a start!