Some of the recent buyers believed the silly Zacks estimates...it will take a few months to work off the froth IMO. The stock still trades at a decent discount to my estimate of PMV. Trading sideways for a while is probably the best thing for everyone.
I don't think that Q2 is usually lower than Q1: EPS: 2001 -- .56 in 2Q versus .43 in 1Q 2002 -- .49 in 2Q v. .53 in 1Q 2003 -- .63 in 2Q v. .61 in 1Q 2004 -- .78 in 2Q v. .79 in 1Q.
Sales: (I don't have 2001 handy) 2002 -- 14.8 in 2Q v. 14.8 in 1Q 2003 -- 16.2 in 2Q v. 15.7 in 1Q 2004 -- 16.8 in 2Q v. 16.4 in 1Q
There's some noise in the results, but overall, I think 2Q's have been better than 1Q. Also, I can't think of a reason why this should be a seasonal business with 2Q worse than 1Q.
Also, if you read management's comments last quarter as saying we should have expected a worse 2Q (as opposed to a worse 2Q just being possible because 1Q was very good), then you're better at reading between the lines than I am.
Overall, I think it was reasonable to expect this quarter was going to be a little better than last quarter, and instead it was a little worse. I don't think the market's reaction (down about $7.50 as of now) is irrational.
I thought it would be down a little more (low 70's). The fun thing about such small companies is that there is not much analyst opinion, so people have to make their own judgments. My bottom line: both sales and earnings were down a little from the previous quarter, and this is not a seasonal business. Yes, the previous quarter was great, but I (and I think most people) didn't expect this one wouldn't be quite as good; the warning last quarter was just that there was no guarantee that the same high margin product mix would be maintained in the next quarter -- I definitely didn't read it as warning that we should EXPECT it not to be as good of a quarter I still really like the company, but IMHO at least a short term pullback is justified.